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Stadium Background

Mauritius vs Chad

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Villeneuve J.
74' Event
Tchouplaou C.
90' Event
Hissein Hassan O.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Chad advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mauritius
30%
Draws
23%
Chad
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mauritius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Chad haven't matched Mauritius's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Mauritius a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Mauritius have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Chad, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Mauritius Clean Sheet 68%
Chad Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mauritius Chad
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 4 2
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 0.54 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.15 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Mauritius vs Chad
1:2
Mar 22, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Chad vs Mauritius
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mauritius Compare

Top Goalscorer Villeneuve J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Chad Compare

Top Goalscorer Tchouplaou C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hissein Hassan O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mauritius 77 / 100
Chad 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mauritius Chad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mauritius Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chad has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Chad registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Mauritius found the back of the net in 35% of recent matches (26 games).

Scoring Trends

Mauritius VS Chad
0.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mauritius

(Home)
31 Mar
Mauritius
0 : 1
Somalia
27 Mar
Somalia
0 : 0
Mauritius
13 Oct
Mauritius
0 : 0
Libya
08 Oct
Mauritius
0 : 2
Cameroon
09 Sept
Angola
3 : 1
Mauritius
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Chad

(Away)
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
17 Nov
Chad
2 : 2
Mozambique
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
12 Oct
Chad
2 : 3
Central Africa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Somalia 2
Eswatini 5
Sao Tome and Principe 1
South Sudan 1
Chad 3
Mauritius 1
Djibouti 0
Liberia 2