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Mayabeque Guines vs Matanzas

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional
Sat, Jun 14, 2025
3 - 0
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mayabeque Guines play Matanzas in the Liga Nacional. Matanzas are favorites here. Recently, Mayabeque Guines averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. Matanzas averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Mayabeque Guines won 1, Matanzas won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 14, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Mayabeque Guines and 1.63 for Matanzas. This points to a Matanzas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mayabeque Guines
18%
Draws
59%
Matanzas
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Matanzas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Mayabeque Guines picked up more points recently compared to Matanzas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Mayabeque Guines Clean Sheet 14%
Matanzas Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mayabeque Guines Matanzas
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 3 8
Draws 4 6
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 0.61 0.93
Goals Conceded 2.18 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Matanzas
3:0
May 3, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
1:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Matanzas
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
4:1
Mar 1, 2023 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mayabeque Guines 24 / 100
Matanzas 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mayabeque Guines Matanzas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matanzas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Matanzas & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mayabeque Guines attacking → ← attacking Matanzas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mayabeque Guines scored in 36% of their last 28 games.

Matanzas let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Mayabeque Guines went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Matanzas lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 30
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC La Habana1173121:1224
2Artemisa1244418:1916
3Isla de La Juventud1132610:1611
4Pinar del Rio1023511:139
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cienfuegos1264220:1122
2FC Villa Clara1264216:722
3Matanzas1233610:1312
4Mayabeque Guines1223711:269
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Las Tunas1271420:1322
2FC Ciego de Avila1262416:920
3FC Camaguey1152417:1417
4FC Sancti Spiritus111373:206
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Guantanamo1283125:627
2FC Santiago de Cuba1143412:1115
3FC Holguin1234512:1913
4CF Granma112279:228