Sport Picks

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Mayabeque Guines vs Pinar del Rio

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mayabeque Guines play Pinar del Rio in the Liga Nacional 2023. Pinar del Rio are favorites here. Recently, Mayabeque Guines averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. Pinar del Rio averaged 1 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Mayabeque Guines won 1, Pinar del Rio won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 15, 2023 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Mayabeque Guines and 1.44 for Pinar del Rio. This points to a Pinar del Rio double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Mayabeque Guines
17%
Draws
59%
Pinar del Rio
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Pinar del Rio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Mayabeque Guines picked up more points recently compared to Pinar del Rio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Mayabeque Guines Clean Sheet 16%
Pinar del Rio Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mayabeque Guines Pinar del Rio
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 3 6
Draws 4 9
Losses 21 11
Goals Scored 0.61 1
Goals Conceded 2.18 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2023 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Pinar del Rio
4:1
May 7, 2022 Liga Nacional
Pinar del Rio vs Mayabeque Guines
3:0
Mar 19, 2022 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Pinar del Rio
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mayabeque Guines 25 / 100
Pinar del Rio 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mayabeque Guines Pinar del Rio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pinar del Rio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Pinar del Rio & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mayabeque Guines attacking → ← attacking Pinar del Rio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mayabeque Guines scored in 36% of their last 28 games.

Pinar del Rio let in goals in 69% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Mayabeque Guines went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pinar del Rio lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 27
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cienfuegos761014:219
2FC La Habana752011:217
3Matanzas740311:812
4Artemisa731315:810
5FC Villa Clara72146:117
6Isla de La Juventud72145:107
7Pinar del Rio71246:155
8Mayabeque Guines71064:163
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Santiago de Cuba742114:514
2FC Guantanamo742112:614
3FC Holguin74129:713
4FC Camaguey73319:412
5CF Granma73045:99
6FC Sancti Spiritus72142:67
7FC Ciego de Avila72145:107
8Las Tunas70253:122