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Mazandaran vs Navad Urmia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iran Iran

Azadegan League 2025/2026 Vatani Stadium, Qa'em Shahr
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Match Events

26' Event
Tohidast M.
37' Event
Maleki A.

AI Match Summary

The Azadegan League 2025/2026 game between Mazandaran and Navad Urmia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mazandaran.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Mazandaran
20%
Draws
0%
Navad Urmia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mazandaran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Mazandaran carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Mazandaran taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Mazandaran Clean Sheet 68%
Navad Urmia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazandaran Navad Urmia
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 3
Draws 10 10
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.06 0.47
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.52 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Azadegan League
Mazandaran vs Navad Urmia
2:0
Oct 13, 2025 Azadegan League
Navad Urmia vs Mazandaran
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazandaran Compare

Top Goalscorer Tohidast M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maleki A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.76

Navad Urmia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazandaran 95 / 100
Navad Urmia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazandaran Navad Urmia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mazandaran Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Navad Urmia registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Mazandaran scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Navad Urmia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Mazandaran went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mazandaran VS Navad Urmia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.17
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.17
50% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Mazandaran

(Home)
08 Oct
Mazandaran
1 : 1
Zob Ahan
13 Sept
Mes Shahr Babak
1 : 1
Mazandaran
07 Sept
Mazandaran
1 : 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
02 Sept
Malavan
0 : 1
Mazandaran
28 Aug
Mazandaran
0 : 2
Shams Azar Qazvin
Page 1 of 7

Navad Urmia

(Away)
16 Jul
Mes Kerman
3 : 0
Navad Urmia
11 Jul
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Saipa
03 Jul
Navad Urmia
1 : 4
Sanat Naft
27 Jun
Pars Janoobi Jam
2 : 0
Navad Urmia
21 Jun
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Naft Bandar Abbas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 48:17 69
2 Mes Shahr Babak 34 19 11 4 41:14 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 37:21 60
4 Pars Janoobi Jam 34 16 12 6 44:22 60
5 Saipa 34 16 11 7 30:18 59
6 Havadar SC 34 11 17 6 32:23 50
7 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 26:19 47
8 Fard 34 10 16 8 24:15 46
9 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 23:18 45
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 19:18 43
11 Besat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 25:32 38
12 Kara Gostar Shabestar 34 9 10 15 17:34 37
13 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 28:31 36
14 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 23:36 35
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 25:41 35
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 18:29 30
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 16:48 24
18 Damash Gilan 34 2 13 19 16:56 19
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