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Mazatlan FC vs Guadalajara Chivas

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio El Encanto
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Merolla L.
15' Event
Alvarez E.
23'
Sub
Moreno Villegas O. F. In: Diaz J.
Out: Moreno Villegas O. F.

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas in this Liga MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guadalajara Chivas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Mazatlan FC
33%
Draws
40%
Guadalajara Chivas
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Guadalajara Chivas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadalajara Chivas have won more games recently than Mazatlan FC.
  • Guadalajara Chivas are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Mazatlan FC Clean Sheet 10%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazatlan FC Guadalajara Chivas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 17
Draws 10 7
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 1.5 2.13
Goals Conceded 2.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:2
Oct 19, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Mazatlan FC
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:1
Jul 20, 2024 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Mazatlan FC
2:0
Feb 17, 2024 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Guadalajara Chivas
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazatlan FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcenas Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Guadalajara Chivas Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazatlan FC 26 / 100
Guadalajara Chivas 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazatlan FC Guadalajara Chivas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazatlan FC's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Guadalajara Chivas conceded in 47% of 30 recent games.

Mazatlan FC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mazatlan FC VS Guadalajara Chivas
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812