Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mazatlan FC vs Toluca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio El Encanto
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Vega A.
15'
Merolla L.
23'
Diaz J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX 2025/2026 game between Mazatlan FC and Toluca finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mazatlan FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mazatlan FC
39%
Draws
30%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toluca come out ahead of Mazatlan FC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 49%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Mazatlan FC Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazatlan FC Toluca
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 14
Draws 10 7
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.6 2.13
Goals Conceded 2.8 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.80 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2026 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Toluca
4:3
Sep 28, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC
3:1
Jan 25, 2025 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Toluca
2:1
Jan 5, 2025 Club Friendly
Mazatlan FC vs Toluca
1:3
Jul 18, 2024 Liga MX
Toluca vs Mazatlan FC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazatlan FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubio B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer del Villar E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Briseno A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazatlan FC 30 / 100
Toluca 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazatlan FC Toluca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazatlan FC found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Toluca conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Mazatlan FC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mazatlan FC VS Toluca
1.6 Goals Scored 2.13
2.8 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 75%
60% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812