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Mazembe vs Medeama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League
Mazembe Logo

Mazembe

3 - 1
FT
Medeama Logo

Medeama

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Mwaungulu P.
19' Event
Baso K.
88' Event
Mwaungulu P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mazembe
30%
Draws
39%
Medeama
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Medeama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Mazembe have won more games recently than Medeama.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Mazembe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mazembe, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Mazembe here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mazembe Clean Sheet 20%
Medeama Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazembe Medeama
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 18 15
Draws 5 5
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.7 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.52 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 CAF Champions League
Mazembe vs Medeama
3:1
Sep 6, 2026 CAF Champions League
Medeama vs Mazembe
0:1
Aug 14, 2016 CAF Confederation Cup
Medeama vs Mazembe
3:2
Jun 19, 2016 CAF Confederation Cup
Mazembe vs Medeama
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazembe Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwaungulu P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Baso K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Medeama Compare

Top Goalscorer Amponsah D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazembe 32 / 100
Medeama 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazembe Medeama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Medeama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Mazembe found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Medeama conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Mazembe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mazembe VS Medeama
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mazembe

(Home)
07 Nov
St Eloi Lupopo
0 : 0
Mazembe
25 Oct
Club Africain
1 : 0
Mazembe
17 Oct
Mazembe
1 : 1
Club Africain
12 Sept
Mazembe
3 : 1
Medeama
06 Sept
Medeama
0 : 1
Mazembe
Page 1 of 6

Medeama

(Away)
08 Nov
Medeama
1 : 0
Swedru All Blacks
01 Nov
Asante Kotoko
1 : 1
Medeama
25 Oct
Medeama
1 : 0
Aduana Stars
18 Oct
Samartex
2 : 1
Medeama
11 Oct
Medeama
3 : 1
Heart of Lions
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Wiliete 5
Foresters 0
TBD -
Mamelodi Sundowns -
Scottland 1
Nsingizini Hotspurs 0
UD Songo 2
Petro Atletico 3
Mangasport 3
African Stars 3
La Cure Waves 1
Orlando Pirates 3
15 de Agosto 5
Fomboni 0
Mighty Wanderers FC 1
Simba 7
CFFA 3
Lijabatho 1
Gaborone Utd 2
Young Africans 3
Asswehly 4
KVZ 0
TBD -
Esperance Tunis -
Aigles du Congo 1
APR 3
Port 1
Zamalek 6
EL Merriekh Bentiu 4
Heegan 0
Mahia 1
Pyramids 7
Aiglons 0
Sidama Bunna 3
Aigle Noir 0
Al Hilal Omdurman 3
Star Sport Academy 1
Medina United 1
TBD -
Berkane -
Maghreb Fez 4
Rahimo 1
ASC Kara 2
ASEC Mimosas 3
Canchungo 0
Teungueth 2
Colombe 1
Stade Malien 0
Rangers International 3
Sobemap 2
Nigelec 0
MC Alger 5
San Pedro 3
Rivers United 3
Vipers 1
Nouadhibou 1
Saoura 2
Horoya 3
Al Merreikh 2
Power Dynamos 0
Medeama 1
Mazembe 4
Club Africain 3
Djoliba 2
Final
Wiliete 1
Mamelodi Sundowns 1
Scottland 2
Petro Atletico 3
African Stars 0
Orlando Pirates 5
15 de Agosto 1
Simba 9
CFFA 1
Young Africans 8
Asswehly 1
Esperance Tunis 2
APR 0
Zamalek 2
EL Merriekh Bentiu 0
Pyramids 5
Sidama Bunna 0
Al Hilal Omdurman 4
Star Sport Academy 0
Berkane 3
Maghreb Fez 3
ASEC Mimosas 2
Teungueth 0
Colombe 3
Rangers International 2
MC Alger 3
San Pedro 2
Nouadhibou 3
Horoya 2
Al Merreikh 1
Mazembe 1
Club Africain 2