Sport Picks

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Mbao vs Mtibwa Sugar

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Waziri J.

AI Match Summary

Mbao in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mbao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Mbao
15%
Draws
0%
Mtibwa Sugar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mbao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mtibwa Sugar lately — more wins on the board than Mbao.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Mbao taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Mbao Clean Sheet 68%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbao Mtibwa Sugar
Matches Played 30 42
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 11
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 0.97 0.95
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:0
Jan 3, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbao
1:0
Mar 3, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbao
2:0
Oct 21, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:0
Feb 11, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Mtibwa Sugar
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbao Compare

Top Goalscorer Waziri J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbao 95 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbao Mtibwa Sugar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtibwa Sugar's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Mtibwa Sugar has conceded goals in 74% of their last 42 outings.

Recent resilience: Mbao stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Mbao found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Mtibwa Sugar
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbao

(Home)
01 Aug
Mbao
4 : 2
Singida Black Stars
29 Jul
Singida Black Stars
2 : 0
Mbao
26 Jul
Mbao
2 : 0
Ndanda
22 Jul
Mbao
3 : 0
Namungo
19 Jul
JKT Tanzania
1 : 1
Mbao
Page 1 of 6

Mtibwa Sugar

(Away)
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1
Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1
Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3
Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0
Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 38 27 7 4 78:21 88
2 Young Africans 38 19 15 4 45:28 72
3 Azam 38 20 10 8 52:26 70
4 Namungo 38 17 13 8 46:37 64
5 Polisi Tanzania 38 15 10 13 37:35 55
6 JKT Tanzania 38 13 15 10 34:32 54
7 Coastal Union 38 14 11 13 33:30 53
8 Kagera Sugar 38 15 7 16 44:41 52
9 Biashara Mara United 38 12 14 12 29:27 50
10 Tanzania Prisons 38 10 19 9 35:30 49
11 Mwadui 38 12 11 15 39:45 47
12 Ruvu Shooting 38 12 11 15 34:42 47
13 Kinondoni MC 38 13 7 18 35:47 46
14 Mtibwa Sugar 38 11 12 15 30:34 45
15 Mbeya City 38 12 9 17 33:42 45
16 Mbao 38 12 9 17 33:43 45
17 Alliance 38 11 12 15 36:48 45
18 Lipuli 38 12 8 18 43:51 44
19 Ndanda 38 9 14 15 28:35 41
20 Singida United 38 4 6 28 23:73 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 (Relegation)