Sport Picks
Mbarara City vs Calvary - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uganda
Premier League 2025/2026 Rwamwanja stadium, Nkoma 
Match Events
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Mbarara City and Calvary finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbarara City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Look at the last few games and Mbarara City come out ahead of Calvary on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mbarara City | Calvary |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 0.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mbarara City Compare
Calvary Compare
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mbarara City scored in 61% of their last 28 games.
Calvary has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Mbarara City stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Mbarara City
(Home)Calvary
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vipers | 30 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 55:17 | 67 |
| 2 | Kampala City | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 46:22 | 62 |
| 3 | Villa | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 47:17 | 61 |
| 4 | Kitara | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 43:22 | 56 |
| 5 | Entebbe UPPC | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 30:20 | 51 |
| 6 | NEC FC | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 31:22 | 51 |
| 7 | Police | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 42:35 | 47 |
| 8 | Maroons | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 26:27 | 38 |
| 9 | BUL | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 30:33 | 37 |
| 10 | Express FC | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 28:31 | 37 |
| 11 | Uganda Revenue | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 27:30 | 31 |
| 12 | Mbarara City | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 26:46 | 27 |
| 13 | Lugazi | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 19:36 | 25 |
| 14 | UPDF FC | 30 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 24:41 | 22 |
| 15 | Calvary | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 14:39 | 21 |
| 16 | Buhimba | 30 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 16:66 | 15 |
