Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mbarara City vs Vipers

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Rwamwanja stadium, Nkoma
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Usama A.
65' Event
Kakaire T.
84' Event
Sentamu Y.

AI Match Summary

Vipers in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vipers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Mbarara City
35%
Draws
32%
Vipers
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vipers lately — more wins on the board than Mbarara City.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Vipers here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Mbarara City Clean Sheet 19%
Vipers Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbarara City Vipers
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 6 22
Draws 9 11
Losses 14 2
Goals Scored 0.76 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.49
Expected Goals (xG) 0.53 1.26
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Vipers
1:2
Jan 6, 2026 Premier League
Vipers vs Mbarara City
2:0
Mar 2, 2025 Premier League
Vipers vs Mbarara City
1:0
Oct 29, 2024 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Vipers
1:3
May 18, 2024 Premier League
Vipers vs Mbarara City
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbarara City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kakaire T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.41
Avg xA / game 0.27

Vipers Compare

Top Goalscorer Usama A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sentamu Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.7

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbarara City 32 / 100
Vipers 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbarara City Vipers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vipers Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbarara City's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Mbarara City remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Vipers conceded in 46% of 35 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mbarara City VS Vipers
0.57 Goals Scored 1.38
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.5
43% Over 1.5 63%
29% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbarara City

(Home)
16 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
11 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
NEC FC
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kampala City
4 : 1
Mbarara City
19 May
Mbarara City
2 : 0
Buhimba
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Vipers

(Away)
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
13 Sept
Nouadhibou
0 : 0
Vipers
05 Sept
Vipers
1 : 1
Nouadhibou
28 Aug
Vipers
0 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
30 Jul
APR
2 : 1
Vipers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)