Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Sokoine Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tanzania Prisons play Mbeya City in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tanzania Prisons averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Mbeya City averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Tanzania Prisons won 2, Mbeya City won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Tanzania Prisons and 1.31 for Mbeya City. This points to a Tanzania Prisons double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Tanzania Prisons
22%
Draws
36%
Mbeya City
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tanzania Prisons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Tanzania Prisons picked up more points recently compared to Mbeya City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 18%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 10
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.82 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
0:2
May 4, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
1:2
Oct 21, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2
Dec 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2
Sep 9, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mbeya City Compare

Top Goalscorer Naushad S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lidah H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 41 / 100
Mbeya City 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tanzania Prisons or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tanzania Prisons attacking → ← attacking Mbeya City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tanzania Prisons scored in 52% of their last 33 games.

Mbeya City let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Tanzania Prisons went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mbeya City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 34
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25