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Mbour vs US Goree

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Mbour Logo

Mbour

0 - 1
FT
US Goree Logo

US Goree

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mbour and US Goree finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward US Goree.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Mbour
35%
Draws
35%
US Goree
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • US Goree carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Mbour taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.4%
Mbour Clean Sheet 20%
US Goree Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbour US Goree
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 18 15
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 0.6 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2026 Ligue 1
US Goree vs Mbour
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Ligue 1
Mbour vs US Goree
0:1
Apr 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Mbour vs US Goree
1:0
Dec 17, 2023 Ligue 1
US Goree vs Mbour
2:1
Apr 30, 2023 Ligue 1
Mbour vs US Goree
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbour 42 / 100
US Goree 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbour US Goree

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Mbour stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Mbour scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

US Goree has conceded goals in 40% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Mbour VS US Goree
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbour

(Home)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
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US Goree

(Away)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Wally Daan
1 : 1
US Goree
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
Ouakam
2 : 0
US Goree
10 May
US Goree
1 : 1
ASC HLM
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)