Sport Picks
Match Events
61'
61'
Abera M.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Mechal SC and Ethiopian Insurance finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mechal SC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Mechal SC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mechal SC carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Mechal SC's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Mechal SC Clean Sheet 68%
Ethiopian Insurance Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mechal SC | Ethiopian Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 11 | 13 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Mechal SC vs Ethiopian Insurance
1:0
Jan 26, 2026 Premier League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Mechal SC
0:1
Jun 10, 2025 Premier League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Mechal SC
2:0
Dec 11, 2024 Premier League
Mechal SC vs Ethiopian Insurance
0:0
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Mechal SC vs Ethiopian Insurance
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mechal SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Abera M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Ethiopian Insurance Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mechal SC 50 / 100
Ethiopian Insurance 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mechal SC Ethiopian Insurance
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ethiopian Insurance's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.
Ethiopian Insurance lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Mechal SC scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Scoring Trends
Mechal SC VS Ethiopian Insurance
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mechal SC
(Home) 03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
28 Jun
Sheger Ketema FC
2 : 0 Mechal SC
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
14 Jun
St. Georges
3 : 0 Mechal SC
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6
03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
14 May
Mechal SC
4 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
04 May
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Adama City
Page 1 of 3
Ethiopian Insurance
(Away) 01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
27 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
0 : 3 Shire Endaselassie
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
14 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
1 : 0 Dire Dawa
30 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 Ethiopian Insurance
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
30 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 Ethiopian Insurance
26 May
Sidama Bunna
3 : 2 Ethiopian Insurance
15 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
1 : 1 Ethiopian Insurance
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)