Sport Picks
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 AAMI Park, Melbourne 
Match Events
15'
15'
Adams E.
19'
19'
Adams E.
Assist: Burgess M.
25'
25'
Miranda R.
AI Match Summary
The A-League 2025/2026 game between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Melbourne Victory
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Newcastle Jets come out ahead of Melbourne Victory on wins alone.
- Model gives Melbourne Victory a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Melbourne Victory Clean Sheet 16%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne Victory | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.77 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 17, 2026 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets
2:2
Oct 24, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory
5:2
May 4, 2025 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory
3:0
Feb 3, 2024 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne Victory Compare
Top Goalscorer Nduka C.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Newcastle Jets Compare
Top Goalscorer Adams E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne Victory 57 / 100
Newcastle Jets 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne Victory Newcastle Jets
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MVC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Jets let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Melbourne Victory scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Melbourne Victory has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne Victory VS Newcastle Jets
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne Victory
(Home) 08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
02 May
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Sydney FC
25 Apr
Western Sydney Wanderers
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
17 Apr
Melbourne Victory
2 : 2 Newcastle Jets
Page 1 of 6
02 May
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Sydney FC
17 Apr
Melbourne Victory
2 : 2 Newcastle Jets
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Melbourne Victory
4 : 1 Central Coast
15 Mar
Melbourne Victory
4 : 1 Macarthur FC
Page 1 of 3
Newcastle Jets
(Away) 21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1 Newcastle Jets
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
17 Apr
Melbourne Victory
2 : 2 Newcastle Jets
Page 1 of 6
21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1 Newcastle Jets
17 Apr
Melbourne Victory
2 : 2 Newcastle Jets
02 Apr
Macarthur FC
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
22 Mar
Sydney FC
1 : 2 Newcastle Jets
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
