Sport Picks
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
Australia
A-League Women The Home of the Matildas, Melbourne 
Match Events
52'
52'
Pollicina R.
(Penalty)
59'
59'
Sub
Pijnenburg E. In: Anthony M.
Out: Pijnenburg E.
81'
81'
Sub
Sakalis S. In: Jancevski A.
Out: Sakalis S.
AI Match Summary
The A-League Women game between Melbourne Victory W and Wellington Phoenix W finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Melbourne Victory W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Melbourne Victory W carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Melbourne Victory W a 40% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Melbourne Victory W Clean Sheet 18%
Wellington Phoenix W Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne Victory W | Wellington Phoenix W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 20, 2026 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Melbourne Victory W
1:0
Feb 8, 2025 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Melbourne Victory W
1:1
Dec 13, 2024 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
5:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne Victory W Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Wellington Phoenix W Compare
Top Goalscorer Woods M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne Victory W 40 / 100
Wellington Phoenix W 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne Victory W Wellington Phoenix W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Melbourne Victory W found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
Wellington Phoenix W has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Wellington Phoenix W lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne Victory W VS Wellington Phoenix W
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne Victory W
(Home) 09 May
Melbourne City W
1 : 0 Melbourne Victory W
02 May
Melbourne Victory W
0 : 1 Melbourne City W
25 Apr
Canberra W
1 : 3 Melbourne Victory W
03 Apr
Perth W
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory W
28 Mar
Sydney W
2 : 1 Melbourne Victory W
Page 1 of 6
02 May
Melbourne Victory W
0 : 1 Melbourne City W
14 Mar
Melbourne Victory W
1 : 0 Western Sydney Wanderers W
20 Feb
Melbourne Victory W
1 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
15 Feb
Melbourne Victory W
0 : 0 Melbourne City W
07 Feb
Melbourne Victory W
2 : 1 Newcastle W
Page 1 of 3
Wellington Phoenix W
(Away) 16 May
Melbourne City W
3 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0 Brisbane Roar W
03 May
Brisbane Roar W
2 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
03 Apr
Adelaide W
0 : 2 Wellington Phoenix W
29 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
0 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers W
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Melbourne City W
3 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
03 May
Brisbane Roar W
2 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
03 Apr
Adelaide W
0 : 2 Wellington Phoenix W
25 Mar
Central Coast W
2 : 1 Wellington Phoenix W
20 Mar
Sydney W
1 : 3 Wellington Phoenix W
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne City W | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 36:20 | 40 |
| 2 | Wellington Phoenix W | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 | Canberra W | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30:24 | 31 |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar W | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 37:39 | 31 |
| 5 | Adelaide W | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 24:26 | 30 |
| 6 | Melbourne Victory W | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 27:24 | 28 |
| 7 | Central Coast W | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27:26 | 28 |
| 8 | Perth W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20:30 | 24 |
| 9 | Newcastle W | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 30:36 | 23 |
| 10 | Sydney W | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 18:29 | 19 |
| 11 | Western Sydney Wanderers W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18:34 | 19 |
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)