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Melfi vs Fondi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Foggia C.
73' Event
Albadoro D.
87' Event
De Giosa R.

AI Match Summary

Melfi in this Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Melfi
30%
Draws
39%
Fondi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fondi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Fondi have won more games recently than Melfi.
  • Win probability leans Melfi's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Fondi arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Melfi, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Melfi Clean Sheet 20%
Fondi Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melfi Fondi
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 0.72 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2017 Serie C - Group C
Fondi vs Melfi
2:1
Sep 18, 2016 Serie C - Group C
Melfi vs Fondi
2:2
Aug 21, 2016 Coppa Italia Serie C
Melfi vs Fondi
2:1
Mar 10, 2013 Lega Pro C2/B
Melfi vs Fondi
4:0
Oct 28, 2012 Lega Pro C2/B
Fondi vs Melfi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melfi Compare

Top Goalscorer Foggia C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Giosa R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Fondi Compare

Top Goalscorer Albadoro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melfi 42 / 100
Fondi 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melfi Fondi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Fondi let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Attacking prowess: Melfi scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Melfi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melfi VS Fondi
0.29 Goals Scored 0.75
0.86 Goals Conceded 2
29% Over 1.5 63%
14% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Melfi

(Home)
04 Oct
Melfi
0 : 1
Nocerina
27 Sept
Ebolitana
1 : 0
Melfi
20 Sept
Melfi
2 : 1
Francavilla
16 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 0
Melfi
13 Sept
Melfi
0 : 1
Virtus Francavilla
Page 1 of 6

Fondi

(Away)
26 May
Paganese
2 : 1
Fondi
19 May
Fondi
2 : 2
Paganese
06 May
Fondi
2 : 4
Bisceglie
29 Apr
Akragas
0 : 3
Fondi
22 Apr
Fondi
1 : 1
Catanzaro
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Giana Erminio 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Lumezzane 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Renate 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pro Piacenza 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Parma 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Piacenza 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Santarcangelo 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
3 Mantova 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Prato 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
2 Lucchese 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Pistoiese 2 1 0 1 3:5 3
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viterbese 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
2 Sambenedettese 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Gubbio 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Virtus Francavilla 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
2 Catanzaro 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
3 Monopoli 2 1 0 1 3:5 3
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Catania 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
2 Akragas 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
3 Siracusa 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fano 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
2 AlbinoLeffe 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Forli FC 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lupa Roma 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Olbia 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Racing Roma 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Taranto 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
2 Melfi 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Fondi 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vibonese 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Paganese 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
3 Reggina 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Coppa Italia Lega Pro 2016/2017 (Play Offs)