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Melilla vs Jaen

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro, Melilla
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Martos M.
90'
Mohamed A.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Melilla and Jaen finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jaen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Melilla
39%
Draws
30%
Jaen
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Jaen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Melilla Clean Sheet 17%
Jaen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melilla Jaen
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 6 15
Draws 12 9
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
0:1
Oct 12, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs Melilla
1:1
Mar 12, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs Melilla
0:0
Oct 23, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
2:1
Apr 24, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melilla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Martos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melilla 31 / 100
Jaen 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melilla Jaen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melilla found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Jaen conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Melilla went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melilla VS Jaen
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Melilla

(Home)
03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3
Melilla
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4
Linares
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
Melilla
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1
Aguilas FC
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1
Melilla
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Jaen

(Away)
24 Jul
Cacereno
1 : 1
Jaen
31 May
Baleares
1 : 2
Jaen
24 May
Jaen
2 : 1
Baleares
17 May
Alaves B
0 : 2
Jaen
10 May
Jaen
1 : 2
Alaves B
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CD Extremadura341712554:3863
2Deportiva Minera34196950:3363
3Aguilas FC34187945:2561
4Xerez CD34178932:2459
5Jaen341610843:3358
6Recreativo Huelva34169941:2557
7UCAM Murcia341671149:4155
8Linares341114942:4547
9La Union (Malacitano)341361544:4345
10Lorca Deportiva341291332:3645
11Yeclano341281433:3344
12Antoniano341281438:4044
13CD Estepona341281440:4444
14Puente Genil3410101428:3740
15Xerez Deportivo FC348121434:4336
16Melilla347131436:4034
17Almeria B34492126:5321
18Malaga B34562332:6621
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)