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Melilla vs Jaen

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro, Melilla
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Martos M.
90'
Mohamed A.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Melilla and Jaen finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jaen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Melilla
15%
Draws
39%
Jaen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Jaen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Melilla a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Melilla Clean Sheet 68%
Jaen Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melilla Jaen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 17
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.17 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
0:1
Oct 12, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs Melilla
1:1
Mar 12, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs Melilla
0:0
Oct 23, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
2:1
Apr 24, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Jaen
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melilla Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Martos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melilla 59 / 100
Jaen 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melilla Jaen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Melilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melilla found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Jaen conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Melilla stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Melilla VS Jaen
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
67% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Melilla

(Home)
27 Sept
Melilla
2 : 0
Malaga Juniors
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
12 Sept
Melilla
3 : 0
Huetor Vega
09 Sept
Melilla
0 : 1
Conil
05 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 2
Melilla
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Jaen

(Away)
27 Sept
Antequera
2 : 0
Jaen
19 Sept
Jaen
2 : 1
UD Ibiza
12 Sept
Teruel
0 : 1
Jaen
06 Sept
Jaen
2 : 2
Huesca
30 Aug
CE Europa
0 : 3
Jaen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 17 12 5 54:38 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 19 6 9 50:33 63
3 Aguilas FC 34 18 7 9 45:25 61
4 Xerez CD 34 17 8 9 32:24 59
5 Jaen 34 16 10 8 43:33 58
6 Recreativo Huelva 34 16 9 9 41:25 57
7 UCAM Murcia 34 16 7 11 49:41 55
8 Linares 34 11 14 9 42:45 47
9 La Union (Malacitano) 34 13 6 15 44:43 45
10 Lorca Deportiva 34 12 9 13 32:36 45
11 Yeclano 34 12 8 14 33:33 44
12 Antoniano 34 12 8 14 38:40 44
13 CD Estepona 34 12 8 14 40:44 44
14 Puente Genil 34 10 10 14 28:37 40
15 Xerez Deportivo FC 34 8 12 14 34:43 36
16 Melilla 34 7 13 14 36:40 34
17 Almeria B 34 4 9 21 26:53 21
18 Malaga B 34 5 6 23 32:66 21
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)