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Melilla vs UD San Pedro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro, Melilla
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Melilla host UD San Pedro in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Melilla at 1.21 goals for, 1.03 against; UD San Pedro at 1.1 for, 1.03 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.50 - 1.31) back UD San Pedro to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Melilla
15%
Draws
28%
UD San Pedro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD San Pedro come out ahead of Melilla on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Melilla taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Melilla Clean Sheet 18%
UD San Pedro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melilla UD San Pedro
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.21 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melilla 85 / 100
UD San Pedro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melilla UD San Pedro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Melilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melilla found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: UD San Pedro conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Melilla remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

UD San Pedro's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Melilla VS UD San Pedro
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Melilla

(Home)
04 Oct
CD Alhaurino
1 : 2
Melilla
27 Sept
Melilla
2 : 0
Malaga Juniors
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
12 Sept
Melilla
3 : 0
Huetor Vega
09 Sept
Melilla
0 : 1
Conil
Page 1 of 6

UD San Pedro

(Away)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 3
UD San Pedro
20 Sept
UD San Pedro
1 : 0
Almeria B
13 Sept
Granada CF B
4 : 0
UD San Pedro
09 Sept
Cacereno
2 : 0
UD San Pedro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Melilla 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
2 Marbelli 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
3 Arenas Armilla 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
4 Motril 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
5 Malaga B 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
6 Almeria B 5 3 1 1 9:3 10
7 UD San Pedro 5 3 0 2 7:8 9
8 Granada CF B 5 2 1 2 7:4 7
9 Churriana de la Vega 5 2 0 3 9:9 6
10 Atletico de Porcuna 5 2 0 3 6:14 6
11 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
12 Huetor Vega 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
13 Torre del Mar 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
14 Atletico de Marbella 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
15 CD Alhaurino 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
16 Cantoria 5 0 3 2 4:7 3
17 Mancha 5 0 2 3 2:7 2
18 Malaga Juniors 5 0 0 5 3:11 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)