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Melville vs Birkenhead

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Melville in this Chatham Cup 2013 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Melville
15%
Draws
57%
Birkenhead
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Birkenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Birkenhead have won more games recently than Melville.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Birkenhead arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Melville, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Birkenhead
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 14 15
Draws 1 3
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.6 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2022 National League
Melville vs Birkenhead
2:0
Jul 27, 2013 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Birkenhead
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 30 / 100
Birkenhead 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Birkenhead

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Birkenhead Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birkenhead's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Melville found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Birkenhead has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Birkenhead
0.5 Goals Scored 2.38
4 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Birkenhead

(Away)
27 Sept
Birkenhead
0 : 4
Cashmere Technical
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1
Western Springs
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Palmerston North Marist 2
Napier City 1
Cashmere Technical 7
Waimakariri United 0
Wellington Olympic 4
Lower Hutt City 2
Roslyn Wakari 1
Caversham 4
Manurewa 0
Melville 1
Birkenhead 3
Hamilton 1
Waitakere City 3
Bay Olympic 1
Onehunga 4
Ngaruawahia AFC 0
Quarter-finals
Palmerston North Marist 0
Cashmere Technical 1
Wellington Olympic 3
Caversham 2
Melville 3
Birkenhead 2
Waitakere City 7
Onehunga 0
Semi-finals
Cashmere Technical 4
Wellington Olympic 0
Melville 1
Waitakere City 4
Final
Cashmere Technical 3
Waitakere City 1