Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Melville vs Hibiscus Coast

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Browne M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Melville
15%
Draws
61%
Hibiscus Coast
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hibiscus Coast

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Melville carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 61% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Melville have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hibiscus Coast, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Melville Clean Sheet 12%
Hibiscus Coast Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Hibiscus Coast
Matches Played 30 4
Wins 14 2
Draws 1 0
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 1.6 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Hibiscus Coast
0:1
Jul 6, 2024 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Hibiscus Coast
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melville Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Hibiscus Coast Compare

Top Goalscorer Browne M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 30 / 100
Hibiscus Coast 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Hibiscus Coast

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hibiscus Coast Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Melville scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Hibiscus Coast conceded in 50% of 4 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Melville remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Hibiscus Coast
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Hibiscus Coast

(Away)
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
27 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
3 : 4
Coastal Spirit
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
South Auckland Rangers 0
Auckland City 3
Takapuna Afc 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 5
Northern AFC 0
Auckland United 3
Cambridge 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Cashmere Technical 9
Island Bay 1
Miramar 3
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Petone 0
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Auckland City 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Auckland United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 1
Hibiscus Coast 2
Napier City 5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Cashmere Technical 2
Napier City 1
Final
Fencibles United AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 1