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Melville vs Western Springs

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Chatham Cup 2023 game between Melville and Western Springs finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Melville.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Melville
28%
Draws
50%
Western Springs
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Western Springs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Western Springs carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Western Springs's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%
Western Springs Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Western Springs
Matches Played 16 23
Wins 7 12
Draws 1 1
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 0.5 2.5
Goals Conceded 4 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2023 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Western Springs
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 22 / 100
Western Springs 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Western Springs

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WSP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melville found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (16 games).

Defensive concern: Western Springs conceded in 78% of 23 recent games.

Western Springs lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Western Springs
0.5 Goals Scored 2.5
4 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Melville2
Western Springs3
Auckland City2
Roslyn Wakari4
Wanaka FC3
Napier City0
Waterside Karori3
Hamilton3
Ngaruawahia AFC2
Cashmere Technical0
Christchurch3
Petone0
Wellington Olympic5
Birkenhead1
Eastern Suburbs2
Quarter-finals
Melville1
Western Springs0
Roslyn Wakari2
Waterside Karori5
Hamilton0
Christchurch3
Wellington Olympic2
Eastern Suburbs3
Semi-finals
Melville3
Waterside Karori1
Christchurch2
Eastern Suburbs1
Final
Melville2
Christchurch3