Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mercadal vs Rotlet Molinar

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Martinez S.

AI Match Summary

Mercadal in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mercadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mercadal
30%
Draws
23%
Rotlet Molinar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mercadal lately — more wins on the board than Rotlet Molinar.
  • Model gives Mercadal a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 68%
Rotlet Molinar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mercadal Rotlet Molinar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 0.9 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.39 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 2.09
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Rotlet Molinar
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Rotlet Molinar vs Mercadal
0:0
Jan 6, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Rotlet Molinar
2:2
Sep 5, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Rotlet Molinar vs Mercadal
1:1
Apr 29, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Rotlet Molinar vs Mercadal
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mercadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

Rotlet Molinar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.9
Avg xA / game 1.16

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 95 / 100
Rotlet Molinar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mercadal Rotlet Molinar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mercadal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rotlet Molinar let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Mercadal found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Mercadal has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mercadal VS Rotlet Molinar
1 Goals Scored 1.43
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.14
63% Over 1.5 86%
63% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

Mercadal

(Home)
26 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Mercadal
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
Page 1 of 7

Rotlet Molinar

(Away)
10 May
Portmany
0 : 1
Rotlet Molinar
03 May
Rotlet Molinar
1 : 3
Constancia
25 Apr
Rotlet Molinar
2 : 5
Collerense
18 Apr
Santanyi
2 : 2
Rotlet Molinar
11 Apr
Rotlet Molinar
0 : 2
CD Son Cladera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)