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Merelbeke vs Diegem

Belgium Belgium

National Division 1 - VV 2025/2026
Merelbeke Logo

Merelbeke

1 - 1
FT
Diegem Logo

Diegem

Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
El Boutaibe T.
50' Event
Moatassim M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The National Division 1 - VV 2025/2026 game between Merelbeke and Diegem finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Merelbeke
15%
Draws
49%
Diegem
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Diegem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Merelbeke carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Merelbeke are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Merelbeke Clean Sheet 11%
Diegem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merelbeke Diegem
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 11 10
Draws 2 7
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1.4 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 National Division 1 - VV
Merelbeke vs Diegem
1:1
Nov 16, 2025 National Division 1 - VV
Diegem vs Merelbeke
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merelbeke Compare

Top Goalscorer El Boutaibe T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Diegem Compare

Top Goalscorer Moatassim M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merelbeke 38 / 100
Diegem 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merelbeke Diegem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merelbeke Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diegem has conceded goals in 85% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Merelbeke scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Diegem lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merelbeke VS Diegem
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 3.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Merelbeke

(Home)
08 Aug
Merelbeke
0 : 2
Lierse SK
27 Jun
Merelbeke
1 : 6
Gent
26 Apr
Ninove
3 : 1
Merelbeke
19 Apr
Merelbeke
1 : 3
SK Roeselare
11 Apr
Merelbeke
2 : 1
Houtvenne
Page 1 of 6

Diegem

(Away)
30 Jun
Diegem
0 : 7
Royale Union SG
26 Apr
Diegem
2 : 3
Belisia Bilzen
19 Apr
Thes Sport
6 : 3
Diegem
12 Apr
SK Roeselare
2 : 2
Diegem
29 Mar
Diegem
5 : 0
Ninove
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hasselt 30 19 5 6 76:28 62
2 Knokke 30 19 4 7 56:44 61
3 SK Roeselare 30 15 9 6 52:33 54
4 Belisia Bilzen 30 15 7 8 62:43 52
5 Hoogstraten 30 14 9 7 54:42 51
6 Thes Sport 30 14 8 8 44:34 50
7 K. Lyra-Lierse 30 12 7 11 45:44 43
8 Dessel 30 11 6 13 61:65 39
9 Tienen 30 11 5 14 38:46 38
10 Cercle Brugge 2 30 10 8 12 41:53 38
11 Merelbeke 30 11 3 16 42:49 36
12 Zelzate 30 10 6 14 52:61 36
13 Leuven B 30 10 3 17 56:64 33
14 Houtvenne 30 8 7 15 40:53 31
15 Diegem 30 7 7 16 52:69 28
16 Ninove 30 5 4 21 40:83 19
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