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Merelbeke vs Mandel United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

National Division 1 - VV
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merelbeke host Mandel United in the National Division 1 - VV. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Merelbeke have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.65 conceded recently, against Mandel United's 1.93 scored and 0.86 conceded. Head-to-head, Merelbeke have won 1 to Mandel United's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Jan 7, 2024, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.25 - 1.69) back Mandel United to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Merelbeke
20%
Draws
44%
Mandel United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mandel United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Mandel United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Merelbeke taking it.
  • Regular National Division 1 - VV form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Merelbeke Clean Sheet 13%
Mandel United Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merelbeke Mandel United
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 19
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.55 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.65 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2024 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Merelbeke vs Mandel United
1:1
Oct 28, 2023 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Mandel United vs Merelbeke
1:0
Dec 22, 2019 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Merelbeke vs Mandel United
3:1
Sep 7, 2019 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Mandel United vs Merelbeke
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merelbeke 48 / 100
Mandel United 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merelbeke Mandel United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merelbeke Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Merelbeke scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Mandel United let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Merelbeke went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merelbeke VS Mandel United
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Merelbeke

(Home)
04 Oct
Tienen
0 : 0
Merelbeke
30 Sept
Merelbeke
1 : 1
Dessel
27 Sept
Merelbeke
0 : 1
Eupen
20 Sept
Merelbeke
3 : 0
KRC Harelbeke
13 Sept
Belisia Bilzen
1 : 0
Merelbeke
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Mandel United

(Away)
03 Oct
Mandel United
1 : 0
Belisia Bilzen
30 Sept
Houtvenne
2 : 1
Mandel United
26 Sept
Mandel United
1 : 3
Hasselt
19 Sept
Mandel United
2 : 1
Hoogstraten
13 Sept
SK Roeselare
1 : 0
Mandel United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Houtvenne 6 5 0 1 17:8 15
2 Leuven B 6 4 0 2 15:13 12
3 SK Roeselare 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
4 Merelbeke 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
5 Dessel 6 3 2 1 13:11 11
6 Mandel United 6 3 1 2 8:5 10
7 Knokke 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
8 Thes Sport 6 2 3 1 10:8 9
9 Tienen 6 2 2 2 12:8 8
10 Belisia Bilzen 6 2 1 3 10:10 7
11 Heist 6 2 1 3 9:12 7
12 Hoogstraten 6 1 3 2 14:13 6
13 K. Lyra-Lierse 6 1 3 2 12:16 6
14 Cercle Brugge 2 6 1 1 4 7:14 4
15 Zelzate 6 0 3 3 5:12 3
16 KRC Harelbeke 6 0 1 5 4:19 1
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