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Merelbeke vs Thes Sport

Belgium Belgium

National Division 1 - VV 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merelbeke play Thes Sport in the National Division 1 - VV 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Merelbeke averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Thes Sport averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Merelbeke won 2, Thes Sport won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Merelbeke and 1.44 for Thes Sport. This points to a Thes Sport double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Merelbeke
15%
Draws
47%
Thes Sport
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thes Sport

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Merelbeke picked up more points recently compared to Thes Sport.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Merelbeke Clean Sheet 16%
Thes Sport Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merelbeke Thes Sport
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 3 7
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 National Division 1 - VV
Merelbeke vs Thes Sport
2:0
Oct 11, 2025 National Division 1 - VV
Thes Sport vs Merelbeke
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 National Division 1 - VV
Merelbeke vs Thes Sport
3:0
Dec 7, 2024 National Division 1 - VV
Thes Sport vs Merelbeke
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merelbeke Compare

Top Goalscorer Antwi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Thes Sport Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merelbeke 37 / 100
Thes Sport 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merelbeke Thes Sport

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Thes Sport or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Merelbeke attacking → ← attacking Thes Sport

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merelbeke scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Thes Sport let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Merelbeke went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Thes Sport lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 49
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hasselt30195676:2862
2Knokke30194756:4461
3SK Roeselare30159652:3354
4Belisia Bilzen30157862:4352
5Hoogstraten30149754:4251
6Thes Sport30148844:3450
7K. Lyra-Lierse301271145:4443
8Dessel301161361:6539
9Tienen301151438:4638
10Cercle Brugge 2301081241:5338
11Merelbeke301131642:4936
12Zelzate301061452:6136
13Leuven B301031756:6433
14Houtvenne30871540:5331
15Diegem30771652:6928
16Ninove30542140:8319