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Merida UD vs Olivenza CP

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Tercera Division - Group 14 2009/2010
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 14 2009/2010 game between Merida UD and Olivenza CP finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Merida UD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Merida UD
35%
Draws
25%
Olivenza CP
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Merida UD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Merida UD carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Merida UD are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 14 2009/2010 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Merida UD have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Merida UD Clean Sheet 18%
Olivenza CP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merida UD Olivenza CP
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 26 6
Draws 6 9
Losses 3 15
Goals Scored 2.2 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Olivenza CP vs Merida UD
1:2
Oct 3, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Merida UD vs Olivenza CP
2:0
Feb 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Merida UD vs Olivenza CP
4:0
Oct 18, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Olivenza CP vs Merida UD
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merida UD 49 / 100
Olivenza CP 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merida UD Olivenza CP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merida UD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merida UD's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Olivenza CP let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Merida UD went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merida UD VS Olivenza CP
3.13 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Merida UD

(Home)
22 Jun
Langreo
1 : 0
Merida UD
15 Jun
Merida UD
0 : 0
Langreo
08 Jun
Merida UD
1 : 1
AD San Juan
31 May
AD San Juan
0 : 1
Merida UD
25 May
Merida UD
2 : 0
Real Avila
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Olivenza CP

(Away)
25 Jul
Olivenza CP
2 : 5
Don Benito
14 May
Olivenza CP
1 : 1
Miajadas
08 May
UP Plasencia
1 : 0
Olivenza CP
30 Apr
Olivenza CP
1 : 1
Diter Zafra
21 Apr
Imperio Merida
1 : 4
Olivenza CP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Badajoz 38 32 5 1 109:19 101
2 Jerez CF 38 27 8 3 77:14 89
3 Extremadura UD 38 24 7 7 77:26 79
4 Arroyo 38 22 8 8 72:43 74
5 Merida UD 38 21 9 8 55:28 72
6 Sp. Villanueva 38 18 13 7 71:50 67
7 Ciduad de Plasencia 38 16 9 13 54:49 57
8 Don Benito 38 15 8 15 48:50 53
9 Sanvicenteno 38 13 12 13 47:49 51
10 Imperio Merida 38 11 14 13 59:56 47
11 Olivenza CP 38 12 11 15 34:45 47
12 Miajadas 38 12 8 18 28:42 44
13 UD Badajoz 38 12 7 19 54:68 43
14 Moralo 38 12 7 19 40:52 43
15 Valdelacalzada 38 9 13 16 35:54 40
16 CD Coria 38 8 10 20 50:76 34
17 CD Santa Marta 38 8 7 23 43:70 31
18 Montehermoso 38 8 6 24 31:79 30
19 La Estrella 38 6 9 23 27:84 27
20 SP Villafranca 38 6 5 27 30:87 23
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2009/2010 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2009/2010 (Main)