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Stadium Background

Merstham vs Carshalton

World World

Club Friendly 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Carshalton in this Club Friendly 2023 matchup, with the score ending 3-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carshalton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Merstham
30%
Draws
23%
Carshalton
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merstham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Carshalton lately — more wins on the board than Merstham.
  • Model gives Merstham a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Carshalton have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Merstham Clean Sheet 14%
Carshalton Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merstham Carshalton
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 6 15
Draws 3 7
Losses 22 12
Goals Scored 1.19 1.74
Goals Conceded 2.39 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Merstham vs Carshalton
1:4
Jul 22, 2024 Club Friendly
Carshalton vs Merstham
2:1
Jul 22, 2023 Club Friendly
Merstham vs Carshalton
3:5
Apr 23, 2022 Isthmian League Premier Division
Merstham vs Carshalton
1:2
Dec 11, 2021 Isthmian League Premier Division
Carshalton vs Merstham
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merstham 39 / 100
Carshalton 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merstham Carshalton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merstham Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Merstham scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Carshalton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 34 matches.

Carshalton's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Merstham VS Carshalton
1 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Merstham

(Home)
29 Aug
Peacehaven & Telscombe
2 : 1
Merstham
06 Sept
Kingstonian
1 : 0
Merstham
02 Aug
Merstham
1 : 4
Carshalton
12 Jul
Bedfont Sports
0 : 0
Merstham
05 Jul
Walton & Hersham
0 : 0
Merstham
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Carshalton

(Away)
15 Sept
Lewes
3 : 0
Carshalton
12 Sept
Carshalton
0 : 3
Dartford
07 Sept
Carshalton
1 : 2
Chertsey Town
05 Sept
Chertsey Town
1 : 1
Carshalton
31 Aug
Three Bridges
3 : 2
Carshalton
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