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Merthyr Town vs Forest Green

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Ajayi K.
23' Event
Trialist
26' Event
Conteh T.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Merthyr Town and Forest Green finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Forest Green.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Merthyr Town
20%
Draws
38%
Forest Green
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Merthyr Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Merthyr Town have managed 1.75 goals a game lately — Forest Green are scoring more at 2.38.
  • Win probability leans Merthyr Town's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%
Forest Green Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Forest Green
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.75 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Merthyr Town vs Forest Green
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merthyr Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Trialist
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Forest Green Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajayi K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Conteh T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 40 / 100
Forest Green 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Forest Green

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Forest Green conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Merthyr Town went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Forest Green
1.75 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2
Yeovil
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2
Cambrian United
25 Apr
Merthyr Town
2 : 4
AFC Fylde
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Forest Green

(Away)
21 Jul
Forest Green
2 : 2
Bristol Rovers
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Forest Green
07 Jul
Bishops Cleeve
1 : 3
Forest Green
29 Apr
Boreham Wood
1 : 0
Forest Green
25 Apr
Forest Green
5 : 0
Morecambe
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