Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney Prediction & H2H Stats
England
Southern League South Division 2022/2023 
Match Events
5'
5'
Thomas F.
8'
8'
Evans K.
43'
43'
Handley T.
AI Match Summary
Merthyr Town in this Southern League South Division 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
25%
35%
40%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Hartley Wintney
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Merthyr Town lately — more wins on the board than Hartley Wintney.
- Merthyr Town are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 20%
Hartley Wintney Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Hartley Wintney |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.65 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.67 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 14, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
4:1
Nov 26, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Hartley Wintney vs Merthyr Town
1:2
Jan 15, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Hartley Wintney vs Merthyr Town
1:0
Aug 14, 2021 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
2:2
Feb 20, 2021 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Thomas F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Evans K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83
Hartley Wintney Compare
Top Goalscorer Drage M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 36 / 100
Hartley Wintney 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Hartley Wintney
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).
Hartley Wintney has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Merthyr Town remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
Page 1 of 4
Hartley Wintney
(Away) 21 Sept
Ashford United
2 : 1 Hartley Wintney
07 Sept
Hartley Wintney
2 : 1 East Grinstead Town
23 Jul
Hartley Wintney
1 : 1 Bracknell Town
20 Jul
Farnborough
3 : 3 Hartley Wintney
06 Jul
Hartley Wintney
1 : 0 Aylesbury United
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Ashford United
2 : 1 Hartley Wintney
20 Jul
Farnborough
3 : 3 Hartley Wintney
23 Sept
Cray Valley
2 : 0 Hartley Wintney
09 Sept
Corinthian-Casuals
0 : 1 Hartley Wintney
29 Jul
Gosport Borough
6 : 0 Hartley Wintney
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston-super-Mare | 42 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 89:32 | 93 |
| 2 | Bracknell Town | 42 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 100:53 | 90 |
| 3 | Truro | 42 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 88:41 | 89 |
| 4 | Poole Town | 42 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 86:51 | 80 |
| 5 | Chesham | 42 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 88:57 | 79 |
| 6 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 23 | 8 | 11 | 88:66 | 77 |
| 7 | Hayes & Yeading | 42 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 80:58 | 71 |
| 8 | Metropolitan Police | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61:59 | 61 |
| 9 | Merthyr Town | 42 | 18 | 6 | 18 | 73:64 | 60 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 63:62 | 58 |
| 11 | Beaconsfield Town | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 75:73 | 57 |
| 12 | Tiverton | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 62:77 | 55 |
| 13 | Dorchester | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 57:79 | 54 |
| 14 | Hanwell Town | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 55:65 | 50 |
| 15 | Salisbury | 42 | 14 | 7 | 21 | 55:71 | 49 |
| 16 | Winchester City | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 56:72 | 48 |
| 17 | Gosport Borough | 42 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 58:78 | 47 |
| 18 | Hendon | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 55:81 | 38 |
| 19 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 44:80 | 37 |
| 20 | North Leigh | 42 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 50:86 | 34 |
| 21 | Yate | 42 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 50:92 | 34 |
| 22 | Hartley Wintney | 42 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 40:76 | 32 |
Promotion - Southern League South Division 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
