Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
England
Southern League South Division 2022/2023 
Match Events
5'
5'
Thomas F.
8'
8'
Evans K.
43'
43'
Handley T.
AI Match Summary
Merthyr Town in this Southern League South Division 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
28%
22%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Merthyr Town lately — more wins on the board than Hartley Wintney.
- Merthyr Town are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 17%
Hartley Wintney Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Hartley Wintney |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 7 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 0 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 0 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 14, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
4:1
Nov 26, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Hartley Wintney vs Merthyr Town
1:2
Jan 15, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Hartley Wintney vs Merthyr Town
1:0
Aug 14, 2021 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
2:2
Feb 20, 2021 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Hartley Wintney
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Thomas F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Evans K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Hartley Wintney Compare
Top Goalscorer Drage M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 48 / 100
Hartley Wintney 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Hartley Wintney
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).
Hartley Wintney has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Merthyr Town remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS -
2.25 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Yeovil
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2 Cambrian United
25 Apr
Merthyr Town
2 : 4 AFC Fylde
Page 1 of 7
21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Yeovil
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2 Cambrian United
25 Apr
Merthyr Town
2 : 4 AFC Fylde
Page 1 of 4
Hartley Wintney
(Away) 21 Sept
Ashford United
2 : 1 Hartley Wintney
07 Sept
Hartley Wintney
2 : 1 East Grinstead Town
23 Jul
Hartley Wintney
1 : 1 Bracknell Town
20 Jul
Farnborough
3 : 3 Hartley Wintney
06 Jul
Hartley Wintney
1 : 0 Aylesbury United
Page 1 of 7
21 Sept
Ashford United
2 : 1 Hartley Wintney
20 Jul
Farnborough
3 : 3 Hartley Wintney
23 Sept
Cray Valley
2 : 0 Hartley Wintney
09 Sept
Corinthian-Casuals
0 : 1 Hartley Wintney
29 Jul
Gosport Borough
6 : 0 Hartley Wintney
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston-super-Mare | 42 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 89:32 | 93 |
| 2 | Bracknell Town | 42 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 100:53 | 90 |
| 3 | Truro | 42 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 88:41 | 89 |
| 4 | Poole Town | 42 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 86:51 | 80 |
| 5 | Chesham | 42 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 88:57 | 79 |
| 6 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 23 | 8 | 11 | 88:66 | 77 |
| 7 | Hayes & Yeading | 42 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 80:58 | 71 |
| 8 | Metropolitan Police | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61:59 | 61 |
| 9 | Merthyr Town | 42 | 18 | 6 | 18 | 73:64 | 60 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 63:62 | 58 |
| 11 | Beaconsfield Town | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 75:73 | 57 |
| 12 | Tiverton | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 62:77 | 55 |
| 13 | Dorchester | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 57:79 | 54 |
| 14 | Hanwell Town | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 55:65 | 50 |
| 15 | Salisbury | 42 | 14 | 7 | 21 | 55:71 | 49 |
| 16 | Winchester City | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 56:72 | 48 |
| 17 | Gosport Borough | 42 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 58:78 | 47 |
| 18 | Hendon | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 55:81 | 38 |
| 19 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 44:80 | 37 |
| 20 | North Leigh | 42 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 50:86 | 34 |
| 21 | Yate | 42 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 50:92 | 34 |
| 22 | Hartley Wintney | 42 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 40:76 | 32 |
Promotion - Southern League South Division 2022/2023 (Play Offs)