Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Marine
England
National League North Penydarren Park, Merthyr 
Match Events
24'
24'
Newell G.
67'
67'
Evans J.
90'
90'
Sinclair-Smith F.
AI Match Summary
Marine in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marine.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marine
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Marine lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Marine have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 20%
Marine Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.42 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Marine
1:2
Apr 14, 2026 National League North
Marine vs Merthyr Town
1:3
Aug 19, 2025 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Marine
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Evans J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Marine Compare
Top Goalscorer Newell G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sinclair-Smith F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 32 / 100
Marine 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Marine
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.67 goals.
Marine let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.
Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Marine
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
Page 1 of 4
Marine
(Away) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
19 Sept
Marine
3 : 2 Radcliffe
12 Sept
Marine
2 : 1 Darlington FC
08 Sept
South Shields
2 : 1 Marine
05 Sept
Marine
0 : 1 Worksop
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
08 Sept
South Shields
2 : 1 Marine
31 Aug
Harborough
2 : 1 Marine
22 Aug
King’s Lynn
1 : 4 Marine
15 Aug
Hereford
1 : 0 Marine
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 8 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10:16 | 12 |
| 19 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 20 | Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 21 | Brackley | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9:20 | 6 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
