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Merthyr Town vs Swansea

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merthyr Town in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Merthyr Town
6%
Draws
4%
Swansea
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Merthyr Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Merthyr Town average 2.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Swansea's 1.5.
  • Model gives Merthyr Town a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 13%
Swansea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Swansea
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 2.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Merthyr Town vs Swansea
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 84 / 100
Swansea 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Swansea has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Swansea
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Swansea
21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2
Yeovil
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2
Cambrian United
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Swansea

(Away)
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Swansea
24 Jul
Swansea
2 : 0
Udinese
21 Jul
Swansea
0 : 2
Bochum
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2
Holstein Kiel
02 May
Swansea
3 : 1
Charlton
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