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Merthyr Town vs Swansea

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Club Friendly
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AI Match Summary

Merthyr Town in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Merthyr Town
30%
Draws
47%
Swansea
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swansea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Swansea have won more games recently than Merthyr Town.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 20%
Swansea Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Swansea
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Merthyr Town vs Swansea
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 36 / 100
Swansea 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Swansea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Swansea has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Swansea
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0
Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1
Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0
Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1
Merthyr Town
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Swansea

(Away)
19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2
Swansea
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1
Burnley
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1
Swansea
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0
Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0
Watford
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