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Metalist Kharkiv vs FC Chernihiv

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga 2025/2026 OSC Metalist, Kharkiv
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Bagachanskyi M.
58'
Romanchenko A.
62'
Bagachanskyi M.

AI Match Summary

The Persha Liga 2025/2026 game between Metalist Kharkiv and FC Chernihiv finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Metalist Kharkiv.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Metalist Kharkiv
6%
Draws
4%
FC Chernihiv
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Metalist Kharkiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Metalist Kharkiv come out ahead of FC Chernihiv on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Metalist Kharkiv taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Metalist Kharkiv Clean Sheet 68%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metalist Kharkiv FC Chernihiv
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Metalist Kharkiv
1:2
Apr 7, 2026 Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv vs FC Chernihiv
2:1
May 25, 2024 Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv vs FC Chernihiv
1:1
Apr 21, 2024 Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Metalist Kharkiv
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metalist Kharkiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Bagachanskyi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaydalov D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Chernihiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Stolyarchuk A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metalist Kharkiv 95 / 100
FC Chernihiv 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metalist Kharkiv FC Chernihiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MET Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Metalist Kharkiv found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: FC Chernihiv conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Metalist Kharkiv stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Metalist Kharkiv VS FC Chernihiv
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Metalist Kharkiv

(Home)
14 Jul
Bukovyna
1 : 1
Metalist Kharkiv
01 Jun
Ch. Odesa
1 : 0
Metalist Kharkiv
26 May
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2
Metalist Kharkiv
23 May
Metalist Kharkiv
2 : 0
UCSA
17 May
Vorskla Poltava
1 : 1
Metalist Kharkiv
Page 1 of 6

FC Chernihiv

(Away)
18 Jul
Livyi Bereg
2 : 1
FC Chernihiv
15 Jul
Obolon
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
01 Jun
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1 : 0
FC Chernihiv
29 May
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
0 : 0
FC Chernihiv
26 May
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2
Metalist Kharkiv
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bukovyna30263174:2181
2Ch. Odesa30198344:2065
3Livyi Bereg30196550:2163
4Ahrobiznes Volochysk30165936:2853
5Inhulets301210841:3246
6Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)309101133:3337
7Metalist Kharkiv301071331:3537
8Probiy Horodenka301061429:3736
9Fenix Mariupol30991231:3236
10Victoria301061437:3836
11UCSA301061430:4036
12Nyva Ternopil308101224:3434
13FC Chernihiv30871530:3631
14Vorskla Poltava30791423:3630
15FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi30491720:4521
16MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya30471916:6119
17Minaj00000:00
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Druha Liga (Main)