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Metapan vs Inca Aruba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez, Metapán
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Narvaez M.
51'
Narvaez M.

AI Match Summary

Inca Aruba in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Inca Aruba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Metapan
35%
Draws
9%
Inca Aruba
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Metapan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Metapan have won more games recently than Inca Aruba.
  • Metapan are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Primera Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Metapan Clean Sheet 20%
Inca Aruba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metapan Inca Aruba
Matches Played 29 20
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.17 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 7, 2026 Primera Division
Inca Aruba vs Metapan
1:1
Sep 6, 2026 Primera Division
Metapan vs Inca Aruba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metapan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Inca Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Narvaez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metapan 76 / 100
Inca Aruba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metapan Inca Aruba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Metapan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Inca Aruba conceded in 85% of 20 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Metapan scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Metapan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Metapan VS Inca Aruba
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Metapan

(Home)
11 Nov
Metapan
2 : 1
Platense Municipal
07 Nov
Inca Aruba
1 : 1
Metapan
01 Nov
Metapan
1 : 1
Municipal Limeno
24 Oct
Alianza FC
1 : 0
Metapan
22 Oct
FAS
0 : 0
Metapan
Page 1 of 6

Inca Aruba

(Away)
12 Nov
Atletico Balboa
4 : 1
Inca Aruba
07 Nov
Inca Aruba
1 : 1
Metapan
31 Oct
Cacahuatique
1 : 0
Inca Aruba
24 Oct
Inca Aruba
0 : 2
Inter Santa Tecla
16 Oct
Luis Angel Firpo
2 : 0
Inca Aruba
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luis Angel Firpo 20 11 7 2 35:15 40
2 Metapan 20 10 5 5 27:21 35
3 FAS 20 9 7 4 33:23 34
4 Aguila 20 8 7 5 37:28 31
5 Inter Santa Tecla 20 6 10 4 27:20 28
6 Platense Municipal 20 7 6 7 26:24 27
7 Alianza FC 20 6 8 6 26:27 26
8 Municipal Limeno 21 6 6 9 32:33 24
9 Atletico Balboa 20 6 5 9 25:32 23
10 Cacahuatique 20 4 8 8 22:30 20
11 Fuerte San Francisco 21 3 8 10 21:36 17
12 Inca Aruba 20 4 5 11 15:37 17
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)