Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Metapan vs Inca Aruba

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez, Metapán
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Narvaez M.
51'
Narvaez M.

AI Match Summary

Inca Aruba in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Inca Aruba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Metapan
20%
Draws
40%
Inca Aruba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Metapan have won more games recently than Inca Aruba.
  • Metapan are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Primera Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Metapan Clean Sheet 20%
Inca Aruba Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metapan Inca Aruba
Matches Played 30 12
Wins 11 3
Draws 8 3
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.1 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Primera Division
Metapan vs Inca Aruba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metapan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Inca Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Narvaez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metapan 42 / 100
Inca Aruba 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metapan Inca Aruba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Metapan found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Inca Aruba has conceded goals in 75% of their last 12 outings.

Metapan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Metapan VS Inca Aruba
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Metapan

(Home)
27 Sept
Metapan
2 : 0
Cacahuatique
19 Sept
Inter Santa Tecla
0 : 0
Metapan
13 Sept
Luis Angel Firpo
1 : 2
Metapan
09 Sept
Platense Municipal
1 : 2
Metapan
06 Sept
Metapan
0 : 1
Inca Aruba
Page 1 of 6

Inca Aruba

(Away)
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
19 Sept
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
12 Sept
Aguila
3 : 1
Inca Aruba
09 Sept
Inca Aruba
1 : 0
Atletico Balboa
06 Sept
Metapan
0 : 1
Inca Aruba
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FAS 11 7 2 2 21:10 23
2 Metapan 12 7 2 3 17:10 23
3 Luis Angel Firpo 11 6 3 2 18:7 21
4 Inter Santa Tecla 12 5 6 1 17:9 21
5 Municipal Limeno 12 5 2 5 17:15 17
6 Alianza FC 10 3 5 2 15:14 14
7 Aguila 12 3 5 4 16:16 14
8 Atletico Balboa 12 3 4 5 13:17 13
9 Platense Municipal 12 3 4 5 12:16 13
10 Inca Aruba 12 3 3 6 9:21 12
11 Cacahuatique 12 1 5 6 11:20 8
12 Fuerte San Francisco 12 1 5 6 8:19 8
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)