Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Metz vs Lorient

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Sane S.
15'
Faye A.
23'
Tsitaishvili G.

AI Match Summary

Lorient in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lorient.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Metz
15%
Draws
42%
Lorient
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Metz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Lorient have won more games recently than Metz.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Metz taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Metz Clean Sheet 13%
Lorient Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metz Lorient
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.41 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Metz vs Lorient
0:4
Jan 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Metz
1:1
Jan 11, 2025 Ligue 2
Lorient vs Metz
0:0
Sep 21, 2024 Ligue 2
Metz vs Lorient
1:1
Feb 4, 2024 Ligue 1
Metz vs Lorient
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lorient Compare

Top Goalscorer Makengo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dieng B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metz 48 / 100
Lorient 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metz Lorient

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MET Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Metz found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Lorient has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Metz remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Metz VS Lorient
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Metz

(Home)
08 Aug
Metz
2 : 1
Guingamp
01 Aug
Metz
1 : 3
Kaiserslautern
25 Jul
Metz
3 : 1
Sittard
22 Jul
Metz
4 : 1
Sochaux
17 Jul
Metz
6 : 0
RFC Seraing
Page 1 of 6

Lorient

(Away)
08 Aug
Angers
2 : 1
Lorient
04 Aug
Lorient
5 : 1
UNFP
25 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 2
Lorient
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Concarneau
1 : 2
Lorient
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)