Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Metz vs Monaco

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Deminguet J.
Assist: Hein G.
58'
Sub
Pogba P. In: Bamba A.
Out: Pogba P.
58'
Sub
Adingra S. In: Fati A.
Out: Adingra S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Metz and Monaco finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monaco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Metz
35%
Draws
44%
Monaco
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Monaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Monaco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Monaco have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Metz Clean Sheet 16%
Monaco Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metz Monaco
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 18
Draws 10 5
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.6 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ligue 1
Metz vs Monaco
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Metz
5:2
Mar 30, 2024 Ligue 1
Metz vs Monaco
2:5
Oct 22, 2023 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Metz
2:1
Apr 3, 2022 Ligue 1
Metz vs Monaco
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metz Compare

Top Goalscorer Deminguet J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Monaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Balogun F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fati A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metz 31 / 100
Monaco 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metz Monaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monaco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Metz scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Monaco has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Metz remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Metz VS Monaco
1.25 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Metz

(Home)
19 Sept
Metz
2 : 2
St Etienne
14 Sept
Red Star
1 : 0
Metz
05 Sept
Metz
4 : 1
Rodez
29 Aug
Annecy
1 : 1
Metz
22 Aug
Metz
1 : 1
Laval
Page 1 of 6

Monaco

(Away)
03 Oct
Monaco
2 : 0
Pisa
18 Sept
Monaco
2 : 1
Lens
12 Sept
Strasbourg
1 : 1
Monaco
04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2
Monaco
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)