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Mexico vs CD Mostoles

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Salazar G.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 game between Mexico and CD Mostoles finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mexico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Mexico
35%
Draws
40%
CD Mostoles
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: CD Mostoles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Mexico haven't matched CD Mostoles's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Mexico Clean Sheet 19%
CD Mostoles Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico CD Mostoles
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs CD Mostoles
1:0
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Mexico
2:1
May 14, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs CD Mostoles
0:0
Jan 8, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Mexico
1:1
Mar 20, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Mexico
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Salazar G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

CD Mostoles Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 36 / 100
CD Mostoles 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico CD Mostoles

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Mostoles Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: CD Mostoles conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Mexico found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Mexico remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS CD Mostoles
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0
CF Fuenlabrada
10 May
Leganes B
1 : 2
Mexico
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2
Trival Valderas
26 Apr
AD Torrejon
3 : 3
Mexico
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CD Mostoles

(Away)
13 Sept
CF Fuenlabrada
1 : 3
CD Mostoles
06 Sept
CD Mostoles
0 : 0
Rayo Vallecano B
16 Aug
CD Mostoles
1 : 0
Burgos CF B
10 May
Atl. Madrid C
1 : 1
CD Mostoles
03 May
CD Mostoles
3 : 5
Siello
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)