Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mexico vs Ciudad de Madrid

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Collado J.

AI Match Summary

Ciudad de Madrid in this Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ciudad de Madrid.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Mexico
20%
Draws
0%
Ciudad de Madrid
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Mexico have won more games recently than Ciudad de Madrid.
  • Win probability leans Mexico's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Ciudad de Madrid Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Ciudad de Madrid
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.27 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.37 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Ciudad de Madrid
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Ciudad de Madrid vs Mexico
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Ciudad de Madrid Compare

Top Goalscorer Collado J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 95 / 100
Ciudad de Madrid 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Ciudad de Madrid

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ciudad de Madrid has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Ciudad de Madrid registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Mexico scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Ciudad de Madrid
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 3.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Union Adarve
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0
CF Fuenlabrada
10 May
Leganes B
1 : 2
Mexico
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2
Trival Valderas
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Ciudad de Madrid

(Away)
10 May
Union Adarve
5 : 0
Ciudad de Madrid
03 May
Ciudad de Madrid
0 : 4
Villaverde San Andres
25 Apr
Atl. Madrid C
5 : 1
Ciudad de Madrid
19 Apr
Ciudad de Madrid
0 : 1
Siello
12 Apr
Pozuelo de Alarcon
4 : 1
Ciudad de Madrid
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)