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Mexico vs Dominican Republic - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Mexico Logo

Mexico

3 - 2
FT
Dominican Republic Logo

Dominican Republic

Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Alvarez E.
46'
Sub
Pineda O. In: Vega A.
Out: Pineda O.
46'
Sub
Reyes I. In: Rodriguez C.
Out: Reyes I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Mexico
20%
Draws
65%
Dominican Republic
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dominican Republic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mexico come out ahead of Dominican Republic on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Mexico have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mexico, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mexico Clean Sheet 20%
Dominican Republic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Dominican Republic
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 9 6
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.4 2.13
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.02 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2025 Gold Cup
Mexico vs Dominican Republic
3:2
Jul 9, 1978 Central American & Caribbean Games
Dominican Republic vs Mexico
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jimenez R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1.01

Dominican Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Peter Federico
1 Goals
Assists Leader Azcona E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 32 / 100
Dominican Republic 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Dominican Republic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Mexico scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Dominican Republic let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Mexico stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Dominican Republic
1.88 Goals Scored 1.83
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.17
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 83%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
07 Oct
Mexico
0 : 2
Chile
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Peru
27 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Colombia
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
Page 1 of 6

Dominican Republic

(Away)
05 Oct
Nicaragua
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
02 Oct
Dominican Republic
1 : 4
Haiti
28 Sept
Trinidad & Tobago
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
04 Jun
Panama
4 : 2
Dominican Republic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mexico 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Costa Rica 3 2 1 0 6:4 7
3 Dominican Republic 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Suriname 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Canada 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Honduras 3 2 0 1 4:7 6
3 Curacao 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 El Salvador 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panama 3 3 0 0 10:3 9
2 Guatemala 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Jamaica 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Guadeloupe 3 0 0 3 5:10 0
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 USA 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Saudi Arabia 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
3 Trinidad & Tobago 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
4 Haiti 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)