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Mexico vs El Alamo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Maganto I.
79' Event
Zamorano G.
(Penalty)
86' Event
Maganto I.

AI Match Summary

Mexico in this Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mexico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mexico
30%
Draws
31%
El Alamo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mexico lately — more wins on the board than El Alamo.
  • Mexico are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
El Alamo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico El Alamo
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 16 5
Draws 11 5
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.28 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
El Alamo vs Mexico
0:1
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs El Alamo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Maganto I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

El Alamo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 68 / 100
El Alamo 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico El Alamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El Alamo has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Mexico found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (39 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Mexico stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Union Adarve
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0
CF Fuenlabrada
10 May
Leganes B
1 : 2
Mexico
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2
Trival Valderas
Page 1 of 8

El Alamo

(Away)
11 May
El Alamo
3 : 1
Trival Valderas
04 May
Aravaca CF
6 : 1
El Alamo
26 Apr
El Alamo
0 : 1
Mexico
20 Apr
Parla
1 : 0
El Alamo
13 Apr
El Alamo
2 : 2
Villaverde San Andres
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RSD Alcala 34 23 6 5 68:32 75
2 Rayo Vallecano B 34 18 7 9 71:52 61
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 7 10 55:48 58
4 Villaverde San Andres 34 14 12 8 52:37 54
5 Galapagar 34 14 12 8 45:41 54
6 CD Las Rozas 34 15 9 10 45:42 54
7 Collado Villalba 34 14 10 10 44:36 52
8 Leganes B 34 13 12 9 58:38 51
9 Alcorcon B 34 13 8 13 55:50 47
10 Trival Valderas 34 12 10 12 47:47 46
11 Tres Cantos 34 12 9 13 43:44 45
12 Mexico 34 11 9 14 35:49 42
13 Carabanchel 34 10 12 12 30:29 42
14 Parla 34 10 8 16 38:58 38
15 Cala Pozuelo 34 10 8 16 42:51 38
16 Aravaca CF 34 9 8 17 42:52 35
17 Canillas 34 5 8 21 36:68 23
18 El Alamo 34 5 7 22 29:61 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025 (Play Offs)