Sport Picks

Mexico vs South Korea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Mexico

1 - 0

South Korea

Our Tip

Match Events

Lee Kang-In

50'

Romo L.

57'

Sub

Lee Jae-Sung In: Hwang Hee-Chan

Out: Lee Jae-Sung

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mexico in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mexico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%

Mexico

30%

Draws

54%

South Korea

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: South Korea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence

South Korea have won more games recently than Mexico.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Mexico have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%

Mexico Clean Sheet 23%

South Korea Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mexico	South Korea
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	17
Draws	9	6
Losses	5	7
Goals Scored	1.4	1.6
Goals Conceded	0.8	0.9
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 World Championship

Mexico vs South Korea

1:0

Sep 10, 2025 Friendly International

Mexico vs South Korea

2:2

Nov 14, 2020 Friendly International

Mexico vs South Korea

3:2

Jun 23, 2018 World Championship

South Korea vs Mexico

1:2

Jan 30, 2014 Friendly International

Mexico vs South Korea

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Romo L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

South Korea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 33 / 100

South Korea 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mexico South Korea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick South Korea Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Mexico scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

South Korea has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Mexico stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS South Korea

2.25 Goals Scored 1.5

0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 50%

38% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)

07 Oct

Mexico

0 : 2

Chile

04 Oct

USA

3 : 0

Mexico

30 Sept

Mexico

1 : 1

Peru

27 Sept

Mexico

1 : 1

Colombia

06 Jul

Mexico

2 : 3

England

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South Korea

(Away)

06 Oct

South Korea

2 : 0

Uzbekistan

02 Oct

South Korea

0 : 0

Venezuela

28 Sept

South Korea

1 : 4

Uruguay

24 Sept

South Korea

3 : 0

Ecuador

25 Jun

South Africa

1 : 0

South Korea

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