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Mexico vs Tres Cantos

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Hernandez I.
78' Event
Ronchetti F.
83' Event
Castro A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 game between Mexico and Tres Cantos finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tres Cantos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Mexico
20%
Draws
30%
Tres Cantos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mexico come out ahead of Tres Cantos on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mexico's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Tres Cantos have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Tres Cantos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Tres Cantos
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 3
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.17 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Tres Cantos
0:5
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Tres Cantos vs Mexico
3:1
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Tres Cantos vs Mexico
1:0
Jan 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Tres Cantos
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Tres Cantos Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ronchetti F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 77 / 100
Tres Cantos 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Tres Cantos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Tres Cantos has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Mexico has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Tres Cantos
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0
CF Fuenlabrada
10 May
Leganes B
1 : 2
Mexico
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2
Trival Valderas
26 Apr
AD Torrejon
3 : 3
Mexico
Page 1 of 6

Tres Cantos

(Away)
10 May
Pozuelo de Alarcon
3 : 1
Tres Cantos
03 May
Tres Cantos
2 : 3
Leganes B
26 Apr
Trival Valderas
3 : 1
Tres Cantos
19 Apr
Tres Cantos
2 : 3
AD Torrejon
12 Apr
Parla
3 : 4
Tres Cantos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)