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MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Czech Republic Czech Republic

Chance Liga 2025/2026 Town Stadium Karvina, Karvina
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Patrak V.
Assist: Samuel V.
45' Event
Samko D.
Assist: Camara S.
51' Event
Samuel V.
Assist: Tanko A.

AI Match Summary

FK Pardubice in this Chance Liga 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
MFK Karvina
20%
Draws
52%
FK Pardubice
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FK Pardubice

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Pardubice haven't matched MFK Karvina's recent run of results.
  • FK Pardubice are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • MFK Karvina have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Pardubice, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
MFK Karvina Clean Sheet 13%
FK Pardubice Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MFK Karvina FK Pardubice
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 1 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.74 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Chance Liga
FK Pardubice vs MFK Karvina
1:3
May 2, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Chance Liga
FK Pardubice vs MFK Karvina
2:1
Nov 24, 2024 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MFK Karvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Samko D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

FK Pardubice Compare

Top Goalscorer Patrak V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Samuel V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MFK Karvina 11 / 100
FK Pardubice 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MFK Karvina FK Pardubice

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Pardubice Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MFK Karvina found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

FK Pardubice let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: MFK Karvina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

MFK Karvina VS FK Pardubice
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

MFK Karvina

(Home)
02 Oct
MFK Karvina
1 : 1
S. Rzeszow
18 Sept
MFK Karvina
3 : 2
Kromeriz
11 Sept
Trinec
3 : 2
MFK Karvina
04 Sept
MFK Karvina
2 : 0
SK Kladno
29 Aug
Pribram
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
Page 1 of 6

FK Pardubice

(Away)
02 Oct
FK Pardubice
4 : 1
Zizkov
19 Sept
FK Pardubice
2 : 1
Bohemians 1905
16 Sept
FK Kozlovice
0 : 6
FK Pardubice
13 Sept
Ostrava
1 : 2
FK Pardubice
05 Sept
Slovacko
0 : 0
FK Pardubice
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sigma Olomouc 4
Bohemians 1905 3
FK Pardubice 3
MFK Karvina 4
Final
Sigma Olomouc 7
MFK Karvina 1