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MFK Karvina vs Sigma Olomouc

Czech Republic Czech Republic

Chance Liga 2025/2026 Town Stadium Karvina, Karvina
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Labik A.
Assist: Fiala J.
41' Event
Rusek A.
Assist: Krivak F.
61'
Sub
Labik A. In: Prebsl F.
Out: Labik A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Sigma Olomouc advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
MFK Karvina
15%
Draws
48%
Sigma Olomouc
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sigma Olomouc

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Sigma Olomouc's 1.89 goals per match outpaces what MFK Karvina have produced (1.78).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sigma Olomouc, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
MFK Karvina Clean Sheet 14%
Sigma Olomouc Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MFK Karvina Sigma Olomouc
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 15 15
Draws 2 4
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.78 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
4:0
May 16, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs Sigma Olomouc
1:3
Mar 15, 2026 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
2:2
Oct 18, 2025 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs Sigma Olomouc
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Chance Liga
Sigma Olomouc vs MFK Karvina
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MFK Karvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Labik A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Sigma Olomouc Compare

Top Goalscorer Rusek A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lurvink L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MFK Karvina 35 / 100
Sigma Olomouc 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MFK Karvina Sigma Olomouc

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sigma Olomouc Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MFK Karvina scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Sigma Olomouc conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

MFK Karvina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

MFK Karvina VS Sigma Olomouc
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

MFK Karvina

(Home)
02 Oct
MFK Karvina
1 : 1
S. Rzeszow
18 Sept
MFK Karvina
3 : 2
Kromeriz
11 Sept
Trinec
3 : 2
MFK Karvina
04 Sept
MFK Karvina
2 : 0
SK Kladno
29 Aug
Pribram
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
Page 1 of 6

Sigma Olomouc

(Away)
02 Oct
Sigma Olomouc
4 : 0
Zilina
20 Sept
Sigma Olomouc
0 : 3
Sparta Prague
13 Sept
Plzen
2 : 3
Sigma Olomouc
09 Sept
Prostejov
3 : 2
Sigma Olomouc
05 Sept
Sigma Olomouc
3 : 0
Bohemians 1905
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sigma Olomouc 4
Bohemians 1905 3
FK Pardubice 3
MFK Karvina 4
Final
Sigma Olomouc 7
MFK Karvina 1