Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Middlesbrough vs Doncaster

England England

EFL Cup 2025/2026 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Logo

Middlesbrough

0 - 4
FT
Doncaster Logo

Doncaster

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Close B.
Assist: Sharp B.
22' Event
Ajayi D.
27'
Kante A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-4, with Doncaster advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Middlesbrough
35%
Draws
46%
Doncaster
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Doncaster

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Doncaster come out ahead of Middlesbrough on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Doncaster arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Doncaster, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Middlesbrough Clean Sheet 13%
Doncaster Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Middlesbrough Doncaster
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.38 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
Middlesbrough vs Doncaster
0:4
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough
3:5
Jul 16, 2016 Club Friendly
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough
0:2
Jul 25, 2015 Club Friendly
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough
0:0
Feb 1, 2014 Championship
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Middlesbrough Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Doncaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Close B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ajayi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Middlesbrough 35 / 100
Doncaster 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Middlesbrough Doncaster

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Middlesbrough scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Doncaster has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Middlesbrough stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Middlesbrough VS Doncaster
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Middlesbrough

(Home)
01 Aug
Middlesbrough
3 : 3
Espanyol
25 Jul
Middlesbrough
1 : 3
Huddersfield
18 Jul
Celtic
1 : 1
Middlesbrough
23 May
Hull City
1 : 0
Middlesbrough
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1
Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6

Doncaster

(Away)
01 Aug
Doncaster
0 : 1
Lincoln City
29 Jul
Doncaster
0 : 2
Wolves
25 Jul
Gainsborough
0 : 0
Doncaster
25 Jul
Harrogate
2 : 2
Doncaster
18 Jul
Linfield
0 : 2
Doncaster
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2