Sport Picks
Midtjylland vs Nottingham
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 MCH Arena, Herning 
Match Events
40'
40'
Dominguez N.
Assist: Milenkovic N.
46'
46'
Sub
Billing P. In: Simsir A.
Out: Billing P.
46'
46'
Sub
Byskov V. In: Lee Han-Beom
Out: Byskov V.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-3, with Nottingham advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Midtjylland
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Midtjylland come out ahead of Nottingham on wins alone.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Midtjylland taking it.
- Midtjylland have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Midtjylland have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Midtjylland Clean Sheet 68%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Midtjylland | Nottingham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 26 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 4 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Midtjylland vs Nottingham
1:3
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs Midtjylland
0:1
Oct 2, 2025 Europa League
Nottingham vs Midtjylland
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Midtjylland Compare
Top Goalscorer Erlic M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19
Nottingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Dominguez N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Yates R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Midtjylland 95 / 100
Nottingham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Midtjylland Nottingham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MID Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Midtjylland's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 26 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.
Midtjylland went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Nottingham let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Midtjylland VS Nottingham
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Midtjylland
(Home) 17 Jul
Midtjylland
4 : 1 Odense
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6 Midtjylland
04 Jul
Midtjylland
4 : 2 Silkeborg
26 Jun
Malmo FF
2 : 2 Midtjylland
20 Jun
Midtjylland
1 : 0 Lillestrom
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
Midtjylland
4 : 1 Odense
04 Jul
Midtjylland
4 : 2 Silkeborg
20 Jun
Midtjylland
1 : 0 Lillestrom
17 May
Midtjylland
2 : 3 Brondby
04 May
Midtjylland
3 : 3 Viborg
Page 1 of 3
Nottingham
(Away) 22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0 Blackburn
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2 Nottingham
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
17 May
Manchester United
3 : 2 Nottingham
10 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2 Nottingham
17 May
Manchester United
3 : 2 Nottingham
07 May
Aston Villa
4 : 0 Nottingham
04 May
Chelsea
1 : 3 Nottingham
24 Apr
Sunderland
0 : 5 Nottingham
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3