Sport Picks
Midtjylland vs Nottingham
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 MCH Arena, Herning 
Match Events
40'
40'
Dominguez N.
Assist: Milenkovic N.
46'
46'
Sub
Billing P. In: Simsir A.
Out: Billing P.
46'
46'
Sub
Byskov V. In: Lee Han-Beom
Out: Byskov V.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-3, with Nottingham advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Midtjylland
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Midtjylland come out ahead of Nottingham on wins alone.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Midtjylland taking it.
- Midtjylland have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Midtjylland have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Midtjylland Clean Sheet 68%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Midtjylland | Nottingham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 4 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.16 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Midtjylland vs Nottingham
1:3
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs Midtjylland
0:1
Oct 2, 2025 Europa League
Nottingham vs Midtjylland
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Midtjylland Compare
Top Goalscorer Erlic M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Nottingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Dominguez N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Yates R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Midtjylland 95 / 100
Nottingham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Midtjylland Nottingham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Midtjylland Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Midtjylland's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.
Midtjylland went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Nottingham let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Midtjylland VS Nottingham
2 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Midtjylland
(Home) 14 Sept
Midtjylland
4 : 1 Brondby
10 Sept
Sundby
0 : 7 Midtjylland
07 Sept
Midtjylland
2 : 2 Nordsjaelland
02 Sept
Aarhus
0 : 2 Midtjylland
30 Aug
Silkeborg
1 : 1 Midtjylland
Page 1 of 7
14 Sept
Midtjylland
4 : 1 Brondby
07 Sept
Midtjylland
2 : 2 Nordsjaelland
23 Aug
Midtjylland
1 : 0 Randers FC
20 Aug
Midtjylland
2 : 0 Rijeka
13 Aug
Midtjylland
3 : 2 Bohemians
Page 1 of 3
Nottingham
(Away) 12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2 Nottingham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
22 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 1 Leeds
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2 Nottingham
08 Aug
Barcelona
1 : 0 Nottingham
08 Aug
Udinese
1 : 0 Nottingham
31 Jul
Sporting CP
4 : 1 Nottingham
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
