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Migori vs Nzoia Sugar

Kenya Kenya

Super League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Migori in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Migori.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Migori
15%
Draws
27%
Nzoia Sugar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Migori

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Migori lately — more wins on the board than Nzoia Sugar.
  • Model gives Migori a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Migori Clean Sheet 20%
Nzoia Sugar Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Migori Nzoia Sugar
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1
Goals Conceded 0.74 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Super League
Migori vs Nzoia Sugar
4:0
Dec 22, 2025 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs Migori
1:0
Jun 21, 2025 Super League
Migori vs Nzoia Sugar
1:0
Jun 7, 2025 Super League
Migori vs Nzoia Sugar
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs Migori
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Migori 40 / 100
Nzoia Sugar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Migori Nzoia Sugar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Migori Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Migori has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Migori scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Nzoia Sugar conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Nzoia Sugar's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Migori VS Nzoia Sugar
1 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Migori

(Home)
13 Jun
3K FC
1 : 1
Migori
07 Jun
Migori
2 : 1
Equity Bank
01 Jun
Kisumu All-Stars
0 : 1
Migori
27 May
Migori
2 : 1
MCF
23 May
Migori
1 : 0
Kibera
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Nzoia Sugar

(Away)
13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0
Kibera
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 1
Fortune Sacco
27 May
Talanta FC
2 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1
Naivas FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Migori 38 25 6 7 57:29 81
2 3K FC 38 23 8 7 62:26 77
3 Mombasa United 38 24 4 10 51:32 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 56:28 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 51:30 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 61:41 63
7 Naivas FC 38 17 10 11 47:30 61
8 Talanta FC 38 16 9 13 53:41 57
9 Kibera 38 15 8 15 32:33 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 31:27 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 37:36 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 35:41 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 30:51 43
14 Kabati 38 10 9 19 32:52 39
15 Kisumu All-Stars 38 10 9 19 23:47 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 32:44 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 27:48 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 24:42 34
19 Vihiga United 38 9 9 20 29:55 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 27:64 25
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)