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Stadium Background

Miguelense vs SC Penedense

Brazil Brazil

Copa Alagoas
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Everson

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Miguelense
15%
Draws
34%
SC Penedense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Miguelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Miguelense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Miguelense a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Miguelense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor SC Penedense, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 21.6%
Miguelense Clean Sheet 68%
SC Penedense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Miguelense SC Penedense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 5
Draws 3 10
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.8 0.44
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Copa Alagoas
Miguelense vs SC Penedense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Miguelense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

SC Penedense Compare

Top Goalscorer Everson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Miguelense 51 / 100
SC Penedense 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Miguelense SC Penedense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Penedense has conceded goals in 69% of their last 32 outings.

SC Penedense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Miguelense found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Miguelense VS SC Penedense
1.13 Goals Scored 0.25
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 25%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Miguelense

(Home)
17 May
Sporting FC
2 : 0
Miguelense
10 May
Miguelense
0 : 3
Sporting FC
02 May
Miguelense
0 : 1
Zumbi
25 Apr
Jacioba
0 : 1
Miguelense
22 Apr
Miguelense
4 : 0
Sao Domingos AL
Page 1 of 6

SC Penedense

(Away)
18 Mar
SC Penedense
2 : 2
Zumbi
02 Mar
SC Penedense
0 : 1
ASA
25 Feb
Londrina
1 : 0
SC Penedense
21 Feb
Miguelense
0 : 1
SC Penedense
07 Feb
ASA
2 : 0
SC Penedense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSA 4 3 0 1 11:3 9
2 CRB 4 2 1 1 7:4 7
3 Coruripe 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
4 Cruzeiro Arapiraca 4 0 3 1 4:7 3
5 Dimensao Capela 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
6 Alianca 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ASA 5 4 1 0 10:1 13
2 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 5 4 1 0 10:2 13
3 Zumbi 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
4 Murici 5 2 0 3 7:5 6
5 SC Penedense 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
6 Miguelense 5 0 0 5 2:18 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)