Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Milazzo vs Castrumfavara

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Galesio L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Milazzo and Castrumfavara finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Milazzo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Milazzo
20%
Draws
36%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Milazzo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Milazzo come out ahead of Castrumfavara on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Castrumfavara have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Milazzo Clean Sheet 16%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Milazzo Castrumfavara
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.86 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Milazzo
3:0
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Milazzo vs Castrumfavara
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Milazzo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Milazzo Compare

Top Goalscorer Galesio L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Milazzo 31 / 100
Castrumfavara 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Milazzo Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Milazzo's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Milazzo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Milazzo VS Castrumfavara
0.63 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Milazzo

(Home)
20 Sept
Milazzo
0 : 1
Sambiase
16 Sept
Enna
0 : 1
Milazzo
13 Sept
Milazzo
3 : 1
USD Ragusa
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
03 May
ACR Messina
1 : 0
Milazzo
Page 1 of 6

Castrumfavara

(Away)
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)