Sport Picks

Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford Utd - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

FA Cup 2025/2026 Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Dons

Fri, Jan 9, 2026

1 - 2

07:30 PM

Oxford Utd

Our Tip

Match Events

17'

Sub

Donley J. In: Peart-Harris M.

Out: Donley J.

34'

Collins A.

Assist: Lemonheigh-Evans C.

52'

Lankshear W.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Oxford Utd in this FA Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Milton Keynes Dons

35%

Draws

28%

Oxford Utd

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Milton Keynes Dons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence

Oxford Utd have won more games recently than Milton Keynes Dons.
Win probability leans Milton Keynes Dons's way, sitting at 50%.
Oxford Utd arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Oxford Utd, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Milton Keynes Dons Clean Sheet 68%

Oxford Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Milton Keynes Dons	Oxford Utd
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	10	12
Draws	10	6
Losses	7	10
Goals Scored	1.7	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.19	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League One

Oxford Utd vs Milton Keynes Dons

2:2

Jan 9, 2026 FA Cup

Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford Utd

1:2

Sep 19, 2023 EFL Trophy

Oxford Utd vs Milton Keynes Dons

0:1

Feb 11, 2023 League One

Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford Utd

1:1

Sep 17, 2022 League One

Oxford Utd vs Milton Keynes Dons

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Milton Keynes Dons Compare

Top Goalscorer Collins A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Oxford Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Lankshear W.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Milton Keynes Dons 59 / 100

Oxford Utd 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Milton Keynes Dons Oxford Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Milton Keynes Dons Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Milton Keynes Dons remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Milton Keynes Dons's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Oxford Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Milton Keynes Dons VS Oxford Utd

1.5 Goals Scored 1.88

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 75%

50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Milton Keynes Dons

(Home)

06 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

7 : 1

Brentford U21

22 Sept

Milton Keynes Dons

4 : 1

Crawley Town

17 Sept

AFC Wimbledon

0 : 0

Milton Keynes Dons

12 Sept

Milton Keynes Dons

1 : 1

Peterborough

05 Sept

Wycombe

3 : 3

Milton Keynes Dons

Page 1 of 6

Oxford Utd

(Away)

06 Oct

Exeter

3 : 2

Oxford Utd

19 Sept

Oxford Utd

1 : 1

Cambridge Utd

12 Sept

Oxford Utd

3 : 0

Burton

05 Sept

Leicester

0 : 4

Oxford Utd

01 Sept

Huddersfield

3 : 1

Oxford Utd

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 1

Scunthorpe 0

Reading 2

Carlisle 3

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 5

Maldon & Tiptree 1

Bromley 1

Bristol Rovers 2

Fleetwood Town 2

Barnet 1

Luton 4

Forest Green 3

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Colchester 2

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 3

Northampton 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Crawley Town 0

Newport 3

Gillingham 2

Brackley 3

Notts County 2

Burton 6

St. Albans 0

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 2

Altrincham 1

Macclesfield 6

AFC Totton 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Tranmere 1

Stockport County 3

Cambridge Utd 3

Chester 0

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

AFC Wimbledon 0

Gateshead 2

Eastleigh 0

Walsall 3

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Halifax 0

Exeter 2

Wycombe 2

Plymouth 0

Salford 2

Lincoln City 1

Tamworth 0

Leyton Orient 1

Rotherham 1

Swindon 2

Bolton 2

Huddersfield 1

Grimsby 3

Ebbsfleet 1

Wealdstone 1

Southend 0

Chelmsford 4

Braintree 1

Weston-super-Mare 2

Aldershot 1

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 2

Telford 1

South Shields 1

Shrewsbury 3

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 1

Cardiff 0

Barnsley 3

York City 2

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Stevenage 0

Chesterfield 1

Crewe 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 1

Bradford City 0

Buxton 2

Chatham 1

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Gainsborough 1

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Harrogate 2

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 2

Hemel Hempstead 1

Spennymoor 0

Barrow 2

1/64-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 4

Carlisle 1

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 1

Bristol Rovers 0

Fleetwood Town 3

Luton 2

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Newport 0

Brackley 1

Burton 3

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 1

Macclesfield 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Stockport County 0

Cambridge Utd 1

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

Gateshead 0

Walsall 2

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Exeter 4

Wycombe 0

Salford 4

Leyton Orient 0

Swindon 4

Bolton 0

Grimsby 4

Wealdstone 0

Chelmsford 0

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 1

Shrewsbury 2

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 0

Barnsley 1

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Chesterfield 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 6

Buxton 2

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 3

Barrow 2

1/32-finals

Wrexham 4

Nottingham 3

Ipswich 2

Blackpool 1

Hull City 1

Blackburn 0

Charlton 1

Chelsea 5

Port Vale 1

Fleetwood Town 0

Bristol City 5

Watford 1

Milton Keynes Dons 1

Oxford Utd 2

Everton 1

Sunderland 2

Boreham Wood 0

Burton 5

West Ham 2

QPR 1

Macclesfield 2

Crystal Palace 1

Sheffield Wed 0

Brentford 2

Cambridge Utd 2

Birmingham 3

Derby 1

Leeds 3

Norwich 5

Walsall 1

Swansea 2

West Brom 3

Tottenham 1

Aston Villa 2

Newcastle Utd 4

Bournemouth 3

Manchester City 10

Exeter 1

Salford 3

Swindon 2

Grimsby 3

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves 6

Shrewsbury 1

Liverpool 4

Barnsley 1

Manchester United 1

Brighton 2

Stoke City 1

Coventry 0

Fulham 3

Middlesbrough 1

Doncaster 2

Southampton 3

Cheltenham 0

Leicester 2

Burnley 5

Millwall 1

Sheffield Utd 3

Mansfield 4

Portsmouth 1

Arsenal 4

Preston 0

Wigan 1

1/16-finals

Wrexham 1

Ipswich 0

Hull City 0

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Bristol City 0

Oxford Utd 0

Sunderland 1

Burton 0

West Ham 1

Macclesfield 0

Brentford 1

Birmingham 1

Leeds 2

Norwich 3

West Brom 1

Aston Villa 1

Newcastle Utd 3

Manchester City 2

Salford 0

Grimsby 0

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Brighton 0

Stoke City 1

Fulham 2

Southampton 2

Leicester 1

Burnley 1

Mansfield 2

Arsenal 4

Wigan 0

1/8-finals

Wrexham 2

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Sunderland 0

West Ham 3

Brentford 2

Leeds 3

Norwich 0

Newcastle Utd 1

Manchester City 3

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Fulham 0

Southampton 1

Mansfield 1

Arsenal 2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea 7

Port Vale 0

West Ham 2

Leeds 3

Manchester City 4

Liverpool 0

Southampton 2

Arsenal 1

Semi-finals

Chelsea 1

Leeds 0

Manchester City 2

Southampton 1

Final

Chelsea 0

Manchester City 1

Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford Utd - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

Milton Keynes Dons

Oxford Utd

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Milton Keynes Dons Compare

Oxford Utd Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Milton Keynes Dons

Oxford Utd

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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