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Mingachevir vs Gabala 2

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

First Division 2022/2023
Mingachevir Logo

Mingachevir

1 - 0
FT
Gabala 2 Logo

Gabala 2

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Mammadzada T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mingachevir in this First Division 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Mingachevir
35%
Draws
28%
Gabala 2
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Mingachevir have won more games recently than Gabala 2.
  • Mingachevir are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 20%
Gabala 2 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Gabala 2
Matches Played 49 30
Wins 16 13
Draws 13 8
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.49 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2023 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Gabala 2
1:0
Nov 2, 2022 I Liqa
Gabala 2 vs Mingachevir
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Mammadzada T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Gabala 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 40 / 100
Gabala 2 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Gabala 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mingachevir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mingachevir scored in 69% of their last 49 outings.

Gabala 2 let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 10

Gabala 2

(Away)
23 May
Gabala 2
0 : 0
Qarabag Agdam 2
16 May
Zaqatala PFK
2 : 2
Gabala 2
09 May
Gabala 2
1 : 1
Neftci Baku 2
04 May
Sabail 2
1 : 0
Gabala 2
25 Apr
Gabala 2
0 : 1
Lokbatan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Araz PFK 28 22 3 3 69:22 69
2 Neftci Baku 2 28 18 5 5 67:32 59
3 Turan 2 28 15 3 10 49:37 48
4 Sabail 2 28 13 5 10 46:44 44
5 Gabala 2 28 12 8 8 45:28 44
6 Zaqatala PFK 28 13 5 10 49:48 44
7 Kapaz 2 28 13 4 11 41:36 43
8 MOIK Baku 28 12 7 9 43:42 43
9 Lokbatan 28 12 5 11 30:23 41
10 Shamakhi 2 28 11 4 13 40:56 37
11 Qarabag Agdam 2 28 9 4 15 32:39 31
12 Zira FK 2 28 6 10 12 28:41 28
13 SumQayit FK 2 28 6 4 18 36:60 22
14 Mingachevir 28 5 5 18 29:51 20
15 Imisli FK 28 6 2 20 21:66 20
Promotion - Premier League 2023/2024 (Main)